Santa Fe
vs
Deportivo Cali
Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Santa Fe 0-1 Deportivo Cali.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Santa Fe, 32% draw, 28% Deportivo Cali — fair odds of 2.50, 3.13 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Santa Fe 1.23, Deportivo Cali 0.84.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Santa Fe vs Deportivo Cali
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santa Fe at 40% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santa Fe vs Deportivo Cali
Line-ups
- 1A. MosqueraG
- 13H. PalaciosD
- 18E. OliveraD
- 3V. MorenoD
- 32C. MaflaD
- 7J. TorresM
- 77J. ObrianM
- 16D. TorresM
- 9F. FagundezM
- 10A. ZapataM
- 11H. RodallegaF
- 12W. AsprillaG
- 24J. AnguloD
- 15I. R. Scarpeta SilgadoD
- 14L. PalaciosF
- 43J. CaicedoD
- 6K. D. Toscano BassaF
- 39C. Portocarrero
- 19N. BustosF
- 17M. LoveraF
- 38A. RodriguezG
- 27F. ViafaraD
- 12J. C. Caldera AlvisD
- 4F. AlvarezD
- 28E. VelascoD
- 5G. CuellarM
- 19J. MartinezM
- 15L. ChaverraM
- 8D. GiraldoM
- 20E. BelloM
- 9J. DinennoF
- 32S. Mondragon
- 26J. TelloD
- 2J. MoyaD
- 16K. SandovalD
- 10E. ReynosoM
- 43S. MartinezM
- 70C. BaccaF
- 23TitiF
- 14A. ManyomaM
Form going into Santa Fe vs Deportivo Cali
Santa Fe
- W4-1away to Alianza Valledupar19 September 2026
- W1-0Deportes Tolima12 September 2026
- D2-2Fortaleza FC5 September 2026
- W3-2Millonarios3 September 2026
Deportivo Cali
- W3-0Cucuta19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Once Caldas13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Millonarios11 September 2026
- D1-1Bucaramanga31 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 | Deportivo Cali | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santa Fe vs Deportivo Cali
- 23 September 2026Santa Fe 0–1 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 19 March 2026Deportivo Cali 1–1 Santa FePrimera A
- 10 November 2025Santa Fe 1–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 17 May 2025Deportivo Cali 0–2 Santa FePrimera A
- 21 August 2024Deportivo Cali 1–3 Santa FePrimera A
- 14 February 2024Santa Fe 1–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
Leading scorers: Santa Fe and Deportivo Cali
Santa Fe
- H. Rodallega14 goals2 assists
- N. Bustos9 goals5 assists
Deportivo Cali
- S. Rodríguez10 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.23 goals for Santa Fe and 0.84 for Deportivo Cali; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: E. Bello 38' (Deportivo Cali).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santa Fe the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Santa Fe against 0.84 for Deportivo Cali. Santa Fe's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.07 for Deportivo Cali.