24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Austria vs Israel UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Raiffeisen Arena, Linz
Referee: Georgi Nikolov Kabakov
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Austria 3-1 Israel.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Austria, 27% draw, 25% Israel — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Austria at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Austria7%Draw91%Israel2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Xaver Schlager
26'
31'
Eilel Peretz
🔁Michael Gregoritschout: Sasa Kalajdzic
36'
⚽Romano Schmid (pen)
43'
🔁Marco Grüllout: Paul Wanner
45'
Kevin Danso
51'
51'
Sayd Abu Farhi
55'
⚽Sayd Abu Farhi
56'
Sayd Abu Farhi
Patrick Wimmer
64'
64'
🔁Dor Peretzout: Yarin Levi
64'
🔁guy mizrahiout: Raz Shlomo
🔁Patrick Wimmerout: Christoph Lang
73'
🔁Nicolas Seiwaldout: Sascha Horvath
73'
73'
🔁Manor Solomonout: Dor Turgeman
🔁Romano Schmidout: Carney Chukwuemeka
82'
85'
🔁Eilel Peretzout: Eli Dasa
85'
🔁Oscar Gloukhout: Liel Abada
90'
Daniel Peretz
⚽Phillipp Mweneassist: Paul Wanner
90'
⚽Sasa Kalajdzicassist: Christoph Lang
90+3'

Match stats — Austria vs Israel

51%Possession49%
19Shots5
9On target1
4Corners2

Line-ups

Austria 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. SchlagerG
  • 5S. PoschD
  • 15P. LienhartD
  • 3K. DansoD
  • 16P. MweneD
  • 4X. SchlagerM
  • 6N. SeiwaldM
  • 21P. WimmerM
  • 18R. SchmidM
  • 19M. GrüllM
  • 11M. GregoritschF
Substitutes
  • 2D. AffengruberD
  • 8J. AdamuF
  • 17C. ChukwuemekaM
  • 23M. FriedlD
  • 20S. HorvathM
  • 13L. JungwirthG
  • 9S. KalajdzicF
  • 7C. LangM
  • 22A. PrassD
Coach: R. Rangnick
Israel 4-2-3-1
  • 1Daniel PeretzG
  • 14G. MizrahiD
  • 5I. NachmiasD
  • 13N. StoioanovD
  • 3R. RevivoD
  • 8Dor PeretzM
  • 15E. PeretzM
  • 17A. KhalailiM
  • 11O. GloukhM
  • 10M. SolomonM
  • 22S. FarhiF
Substitutes
  • 9T. BariboF
  • 6Y. LeviM
  • 23A. TzurG
  • 19D. TurgemanF
  • 21I. Toklomati GiornoF
  • 7Y. ShuaF
  • 4R. ShlomoD
  • 18O. GlazerG
  • 16I. FeingoldD
Coach: R. Ben Shimon

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Austria422095+48
4Israel402227-52

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Austria vs Israel

  • 12 November 2021Austria 4–2 IsraelWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 4 September 2021Israel 5–2 AustriaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 10 October 2019Austria 3–1 IsraelEuro Championship
  • 24 March 2019Israel 4–2 AustriaEuro Championship

The full Austria vs Israel record →

The result against the call

Austria beat Israel 3–1. The model had made a win for Austria its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Romano Schmid (penalty) 43' for Austria, Sayd Abu Farhi 55' for Israel, Phillipp Mwene 90' for Austria, Sasa Kalajdzic 90+3' for Austria. Sent off: Sayd Abu Farhi (Israel) 56'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.