Portugal vs Wales UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Portugal 1-0 Wales.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Portugal, 27% draw, 26% Wales — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Portugal at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Portugal vs Wales
Line-ups
- 1Diogo CostaG
- 20João CanceloD
- 3Rúben DiasD
- 13Renato VeigaD
- 19Nuno MendesD
- 21Rúben NevesM
- 18Pedro NetoM
- 23VitinhaM
- 8Bruno FernandesM
- 11João FélixF
- 7Cristiano RonaldoF
- 14Francisco ConceiçãoF
- 16TrincãoF
- 5Nuno TavaresD
- 22Samuel SoaresG
- 12Rui SilvaG
- 10Bernardo SilvaM
- 9Gonçalo RamosF
- 4Tomás AraújoD
- 2Diogo DalotD
- 12D. WardG
- 3N. WilliamsD
- 6B. CabangoD
- 4B. DaviesD
- 15J. DasilvaD
- 5E. AmpaduM
- 22J. SheehanM
- 17J. JamesM
- 7D. BrooksF
- 9L. KoumasF
- 11B. JohnsonF
- 19S. ThomasF
- 8W. BurnsF
- 23J. ColwillM
- 14C. RobertsD
- 16R. Norrington-DaviesD
- 13K. MooreF
- 2C. MephamD
- 21T. KingG
- 20D. JamesF
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 12 |
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Portugal vs Wales
- 6 July 2016Portugal 2–0 WalesEuro Championship
Leading scorers: Portugal and Wales
Portugal
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Ramos31
- João Félix31
Wales
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Portugal beat Wales 1–0. The model had made a win for Portugal its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Joao Felix 22' for Portugal.