Andorra vs Malta UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Andorra 1-2 Malta.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Andorra, 32% draw, 39% Malta — fair odds of 3.45, 3.13 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Malta at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Andorra vs Malta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Iker ÁlvarezG
- 2Biel Borra FontD
- 5Max LloveraD
- 22Ian Bryan OliveraD
- 15Moisés San NicolásD
- 23Ot Remolins PlanesM
- 3Pau BabotM
- 16Éric IzquierdoM
- 17Aron RodrigoM
- 20Gerard Sola GarciaF
- 10Guillaume LopezF
- 14Jordi AláezM
- 11Albert RosasF
- 7Alexandre MartínezF
- 21Alex Cornella MolinsD
- 8Éric ValesM
- 13Alex RuizG
- 1Marc De Castro PratG
- 4Christian GarcíaD
- 6Francisco PomaresD
- 1Henry BonelloG
- 22Zach MuscatD
- 5Kurt ShawD
- 13Enrico PepeD
- 3Ryan CamenzuliD
- 6Matthew GuillaumierM
- 23Alexander SatarianoM
- 20Ylyas ChouarefM
- 10Teddy TeumaM
- 8Paul MbongM
- 11Irvin CardonaF
- 21Juan Carlos CorbalanF
- 7Brandon PaiberM
- 19Keyon EwurumF
- 9Jake GrechF
- 12James SissonsG
- 16Rashed Al-TumiG
- 2Adam OverendD
- 4Gabriel MentzD
- 15Myles BeermanD
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Andorra | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Andorra vs Malta
- 19 November 2024Malta 0–0 AndorraUEFA Nations League
- 10 September 2024Andorra 0–1 MaltaUEFA Nations League
- 14 November 2020Malta 3–1 AndorraUEFA Nations League
- 10 October 2020Andorra 0–0 MaltaUEFA Nations League
The result against the call
Malta won 2–1 at Andorra. The model had made a win for Malta its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Guillaume Lopez 17' for Andorra, Irvin Cardona 36' for Malta, Teddy Teuma 81' for Malta. On expected goals it finished 0.76–3.03.