Kosovo vs Rep. Of Ireland UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Kosovo 1-0 Rep. Of Ireland.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Kosovo, 30% draw, 42% Rep. Of Ireland — fair odds of 3.57, 3.33 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rep. Of Ireland at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kosovo vs Rep. Of Ireland
Line-ups
- 1A. MurićG
- 15M. VojvodaD
- 5L. DellovaD
- 4I. KrasniqiD
- 21A. HajdariD
- 13D. GallapeniD
- 10E. ZhegrovaM
- 20V. HodžaM
- 23L. AvdullahuM
- 14B. ZabërgjaM
- 18V. MuriqiF
- 11F. AsllaniF
- 12V. BekajG
- 22M. JashariM
- 17E. KrasniqiF
- 8V. MatoshiM
- 2R. RaciD
- 7M. RashicaM
- 9A. RrahmaniF
- 16A. SaipiG
- 1C. KelleherG
- 5J. O'BrienD
- 15J. EganD
- 4D. O'SheaD
- 2J. AbankwahM
- 8J. KnightM
- 6J. MolumbyM
- 3L. ScalesM
- 20C. OgbeneM
- 11F. AzazM
- 7T. ParrottF
- 10A. IdahF
- 18R. ManningD
- 17J. MoylanM
- 23M. O’LearyG
- 22K. PhillipsM
- 9T. CannonF
- 16G. BazunuG
- 21R. VataF
- 13J. BaganD
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kosovo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 3 | Rep. Of Ireland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Kosovo and Rep. Of Ireland
Kosovo
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Rep. Of Ireland
GoalsAssists
- T. Parrott40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kosovo beat Rep. Of Ireland 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Rep. Of Ireland at 42% and given a win for Kosovo 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Vedat Muriqi 83' for Kosovo.