Nea Salamis
vs
Omonia Aradippou
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Nea Salamis 2–1 Omonia Aradippou
The model makes it 46% Nea Salamis, 27% draw, 27% Omonia Aradippou — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Nea Salamis 1.67, Omonia Aradippou 1.15.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Nea Salamis's rating is built from 6 Cypriot First Division matches and Omonia Aradippou's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Nea Salamis are 11th on 4 points from 6 games; Omonia Aradippou are 9th on 6 points from 6 games — 1. Division.
- Nea Salamis have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Apollon Limassol.
- Omonia Aradippou are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to AEL.
- Last 6 meetings: Nea Salamis 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 April 2025, ended Omonia Aradippou 0–2 Nea Salamis.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nea Salamis at 46% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou
Nea Salamis
1. Division
- L2-4away to Apollon Limassol17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Apoel Nicosia10 October 2026
- W3-0Anorthosis19 September 2026
- L1-2away to AEL11 September 2026
- L1-4AEK Larnaca6 September 2026
Omonia Aradippou
1. Division
- L0-2AEL18 October 2026
- L0-1away to AEK Larnaca12 October 2026
- D1-1Olympiakos20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Karmiotissa12 September 2026
- W2-1Krasava Ypsonas5 September 2026
What these results say
- Nea Salamis scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Nea Salamis had three goals or more.
- Nea Salamis failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Omonia Aradippou conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Omonia Aradippou failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Omonia Aradippou had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 4 |
| 9 | Omonia Aradippou | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou
- 7 April 2025Omonia Aradippou 0–2 Nea Salamis1. Division
- 1 March 2025Nea Salamis 2–3 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
- 1 December 2024Omonia Aradippou 1–0 Nea Salamis1. Division
- 17 April 2022Nea Salamis 2–0 Omonia Aradippou2. Division
- 11 December 2021Omonia Aradippou 1–2 Nea Salamis2. Division
- 29 July 2020Nea Salamis 0–0 Omonia AradippouFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nea Salamis carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.45 for Omonia Aradippou. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Nea Salamis and 1.15 for Omonia Aradippou. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nea Salamis rate 0.85 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Omonia Aradippou rate 0.51 and 1.21.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Omonia Aradippou, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nea Salamis the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Nea Salamis against 1.15 for Omonia Aradippou. Nea Salamis's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.21 for Omonia Aradippou.
How the model reaches 46% for Nea Salamis to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nea Salamis to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Nea Salamis's ratings take away 20 points and Omonia Aradippou's ratings add 22 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Nea Salamis's ratings24%−20
- Omonia Aradippou's ratings46%+22
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nea Salamis at home · Omonia Aradippou away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Nea Salamis 6, Omonia Aradippou 6.
Omonia Aradippou score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Nea Salamis have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Nea Salamis
- at Aris21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 23%
- vs Omonia Nicosia30 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 16%
- at Krasava Ypsonas3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 37%
Omonia Aradippou
- vs Pafos21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 27%
- at Omonia 29is Maiou27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 24%
- at Apollon Limassol2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 17%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.