Omonia Aradippou
vs
Apoel Nicosia
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Omonia Aradippou 1–0 Apoel Nicosia
The model makes it 35% Omonia Aradippou, 30% draw, 35% Apoel Nicosia — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Omonia Aradippou 1.16, Apoel Nicosia 1.15.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Omonia Aradippou and Apoel Nicosia are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Omonia Aradippou are 8th on 6 points from 5 games; Apoel Nicosia are 7th on 7 points from 5 games — 1. Division.
- Omonia Aradippou are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to AEK Larnaca.
- Apoel Nicosia have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Nea Salamis.
- Last 4 meetings: Apoel Nicosia 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 January 2026, ended Apoel Nicosia 1–1 Omonia Aradippou.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Omonia Aradippou vs Apoel Nicosia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Omonia Aradippou at 35% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Omonia Aradippou vs Apoel Nicosia
Omonia Aradippou
- L0-1away to AEK Larnaca12 October 2026
- D1-1Olympiakos20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Karmiotissa12 September 2026
- W2-1Krasava Ypsonas5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Omonia Nicosia31 August 2026
Apoel Nicosia
- W2-1Nea Salamis10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Apollon Limassol19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Anorthosis12 September 2026
- W6-0AEL6 September 2026
- L1-3away to AEK Larnaca29 August 2026
What these results say
- Omonia Aradippou failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Omonia Aradippou conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Omonia Aradippou had two goals or fewer.
- Apoel Nicosia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Apoel Nicosia had three goals or more.
- Apoel Nicosia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Omonia Aradippou | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Omonia Aradippou vs Apoel Nicosia
- 23 January 2026Apoel Nicosia 1–1 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
- 3 October 2025Omonia Aradippou 0–4 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
- 26 January 2025Apoel Nicosia 7–0 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
- 19 October 2024Omonia Aradippou 0–5 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Omonia Aradippou carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.62 for Apoel Nicosia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Omonia Aradippou and 1.15 for Apoel Nicosia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Omonia Aradippou rate 0.54 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Apoel Nicosia rate 0.83 and 1.32.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Apoel Nicosia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Omonia Aradippou the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Omonia Aradippou against 1.15 for Apoel Nicosia. Omonia Aradippou's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.32 for Apoel Nicosia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Omonia Aradippou at home · Apoel Nicosia away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Omonia Aradippou 5, Apoel Nicosia 5.
Omonia Aradippou score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Apoel Nicosia have let in 2 there.
Apoel Nicosia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Omonia Aradippou have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Omonia Aradippou
- at Nea Salamis6 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 30%
- vs Pafos21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 29%
- at Omonia 29is Maiou27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 27%
Apoel Nicosia
- vs Aris8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 47%
- at Omonia Nicosia21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 12%
- vs Krasava Ypsonas28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 61%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.