Anorthosis
vs
Omonia Aradippou
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Anorthosis 1–0 Omonia Aradippou
The model makes it 36% Anorthosis, 32% draw, 32% Omonia Aradippou — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Anorthosis 1.08, Omonia Aradippou 0.97.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Anorthosis are 13th on 3 points from 5 games; Omonia Aradippou are 8th on 6 points from 5 games — 1. Division.
- Anorthosis have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Pafos.
- Omonia Aradippou are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to AEK Larnaca.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Anorthosis 1–1 Omonia Aradippou.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Anorthosis vs Omonia Aradippou
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Anorthosis at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Anorthosis vs Omonia Aradippou
Anorthosis
- L1-3Pafos11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Nea Salamis19 September 2026
- W2-1Apoel Nicosia12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Apollon Limassol5 September 2026
- L0-2away to AEL30 August 2026
Omonia Aradippou
- L0-1away to AEK Larnaca12 October 2026
- D1-1Olympiakos20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Karmiotissa12 September 2026
- W2-1Krasava Ypsonas5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Omonia Nicosia31 August 2026
What these results say
- Anorthosis conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Anorthosis failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Anorthosis had three goals or more.
- Omonia Aradippou failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Omonia Aradippou conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Omonia Aradippou had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Anorthosis | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3 |
| 8 | Omonia Aradippou | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Anorthosis vs Omonia Aradippou
- 19 April 2026Anorthosis 1–1 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
- 13 December 2025Omonia Aradippou 1–0 Anorthosis1. Division
- 23 August 2025Anorthosis 0–0 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
- 12 April 2025Anorthosis 1–2 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
- 14 December 2024Anorthosis 3–0 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
- 11 December 2024Omonia Aradippou 2–4 AnorthosisCup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Anorthosis carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.49 for Omonia Aradippou. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Anorthosis and 0.97 for Omonia Aradippou. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Anorthosis rate 0.57 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Omonia Aradippou rate 0.54 and 1.16.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Omonia Aradippou, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Anorthosis the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Anorthosis against 0.97 for Omonia Aradippou. Anorthosis's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.16 for Omonia Aradippou.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Anorthosis at home · Omonia Aradippou away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Anorthosis 5, Omonia Aradippou 5.
Anorthosis score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Omonia Aradippou have let in 2 there.
Omonia Aradippou score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Anorthosis have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Anorthosis
- at Aris1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 20%
- vs Omonia Nicosia8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 14%
- at Krasava Ypsonas23 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 32%
- vs Karmiotissa28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 44%
Omonia Aradippou
- vs Apoel Nicosia1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 35%
- at Nea Salamis6 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 29%
- vs Pafos21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 28%
- at Omonia 29is Maiou27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.