Aluminium Arak
vs
Mes Shahr-e Babak
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Aluminium Arak 2–0 Mes Shahr-e Babak
The model makes it 61% Aluminium Arak, 22% draw, 17% Mes Shahr-e Babak — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Aluminium Arak 2.34, Mes Shahr-e Babak 1.00.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,455 settled matches.
Edge to Aluminium Arak: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Aluminium Arak's rating is built from 31 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Mes Shahr-e Babak's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Aluminium Arak are 6th on 13 points from 9 games; Mes Shahr-e Babak are bottom on 5 points from 9 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Aluminium Arak are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Sanat Naft.
- Mes Shahr-e Babak have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Persepolis FC.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aluminium Arak vs Mes Shahr-e Babak
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aluminium Arak at 61% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 1,093 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aluminium Arak vs Mes Shahr-e Babak
Aluminium Arak
Persian Gulf Pro League
- L1-2away to Sanat Naft17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Fajr Sepasi13 October 2026
- D1-1Malavan8 October 2026
- D0-0Esteghlal FC6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Gol Gohar1 September 2026
Mes Shahr-e Babak
Persian Gulf Pro League
- L0-3Persepolis FC19 October 2026
- L1-2away to Foolad FC8 October 2026
- D1-1Nassaji Mazandaran13 September 2026
- L1-2Malavan7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fajr Sepasi3 September 2026
What these results say
- Aluminium Arak failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aluminium Arak scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mes Shahr-e Babak did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mes Shahr-e Babak conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mes Shahr-e Babak scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aluminium Arak | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 18 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Aluminium Arak carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.1 for Mes Shahr-e Babak. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.34 goals for Aluminium Arak and 1.00 for Mes Shahr-e Babak. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aluminium Arak rate 0.63 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mes Shahr-e Babak rate 0.51 and 2.28.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aluminium Arak the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Aluminium Arak against 1.00 for Mes Shahr-e Babak. Aluminium Arak's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.28 for Mes Shahr-e Babak.
How the model reaches 61% for Aluminium Arak to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Aluminium Arak to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Aluminium Arak's ratings take away 23 points and Mes Shahr-e Babak's ratings add 40 points, which lands on the published 61%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Aluminium Arak's ratings21%−23
- Mes Shahr-e Babak's ratings61%+40
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aluminium Arak at home · Mes Shahr-e Babak away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Aluminium Arak 9, Mes Shahr-e Babak 9.
Aluminium Arak score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Mes Shahr-e Babak have let in 3 there.
Mes Shahr-e Babak score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Aluminium Arak have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.