Qarabag
vs
Turan
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Qarabag 2–0 Turan
The model makes it 59% Qarabag, 24% draw, 17% Turan — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Qarabag 1.93, Turan 0.80.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,455 settled matches.
Edge to Qarabag: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Qarabag's rating is built from 40 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Turan's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Qarabag are 3rd on 17 points from 7 games; Turan are 4th on 14 points from 8 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Qarabag are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Neftchi Baku.
- Turan have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Imisli FK.
- Last 6 meetings: Qarabag 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 May 2026, ended Qarabag 2–1 Turan.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Qarabag vs Turan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Qarabag at 59% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 1,093 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Qarabag vs Turan
Qarabag
Premyer Liqa
- D3-3Neftchi Baku17 October 2026
- W2-0away to Imisli FK11 October 2026
- W1-0Safa Baku18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Zira13 September 2026
- W3-2Araz6 September 2026
Turan
Premyer Liqa
- L0-1away to Imisli FK18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Safa Baku11 October 2026
- W1-0Zira19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Araz13 September 2026
- W2-1Sumqayıt6 September 2026
What these results say
- Qarabag went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Qarabag scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Turan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Qarabag | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 17 |
| 4 | Turan | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Qarabag vs Turan
- 4 May 2026Qarabag 2–1 TuranPremyer Liqa
- 1 February 2026Qarabag 1–0 TuranPremyer Liqa
- 17 October 2025Turan 1–2 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 28 March 2025Turan 1–4 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 26 January 2025Qarabag 1–2 TuranPremyer Liqa
- 1 November 2024Turan 0–0 QarabagPremyer Liqa
The two sides
Qarabag carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.46 for Turan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for Qarabag and 0.80 for Turan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Qarabag rate 0.98 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Turan rate 0.53 and 1.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Qarabag a 18.8% chance of the title and Turan 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Qarabag the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Qarabag against 0.80 for Turan. Qarabag's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.21 for Turan.
How the model reaches 59% for Qarabag to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Qarabag to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Qarabag's ratings take away 6 points and Turan's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Qarabag's ratings38%−6
- Turan's ratings59%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Qarabag at home · Turan away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Qarabag 7, Turan 8.
Qarabag score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Turan have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Qarabag
- at Kapaz22 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 56%
- vs Sumqayıt28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 71%
- at Araz5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 61%
Turan
- at Şamaxı FK21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 32%
- vs Kapaz28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 51%
- at Sumqayıt5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.