Vejle
vs
FC Fredericia
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Vejle 1–0 FC Fredericia
The model makes it 36% Vejle, 29% draw, 35% FC Fredericia — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vejle 1.30, FC Fredericia 1.26.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 940 settled matches.
A tight game: Vejle and FC Fredericia are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Vejle's rating is built from 11 1. Division (Denmark) matches and FC Fredericia's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Vejle are 2nd on 22 points from 11 games; FC Fredericia are 3rd on 20 points from 11 games — 1. Division.
- Vejle have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Aalborg.
- FC Fredericia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Hobro.
- Last 6 meetings: Vejle 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 20 September 2026, ended FC Fredericia 2–2 Vejle.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vejle vs FC Fredericia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vejle at 36% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 3,435 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vejle vs FC Fredericia
Vejle
1. Division
- W1-0away to Aalborg17 October 2026
- L1-2Hvidovre9 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Fredericia20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hobro11 September 2026
- W4-1Vendsyssel FF4 September 2026
FC Fredericia
1. Division
- W3-0Hobro17 October 2026
- W2-0away to Hillerød10 October 2026
- D2-2Vejle20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Kolding IF12 September 2026
- W1-0Esbjerg5 September 2026
What these results say
- Vejle scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Fredericia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Fredericia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Fredericia kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Vejle | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vejle vs FC Fredericia
- 20 September 2026FC Fredericia 2–2 Vejle1. Division
- 10 May 2026Vejle 2–0 FC FredericiaSuperliga
- 13 April 2026FC Fredericia 2–2 VejleSuperliga
- 9 February 2026Vejle 2–3 FC FredericiaSuperliga
- 15 September 2025FC Fredericia 1–1 VejleSuperliga
- 6 July 2024Vejle 3–0 FC FredericiaFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vejle carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.52 for FC Fredericia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Vejle and 1.26 for FC Fredericia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vejle rate 0.70 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Fredericia rate 0.56 and 1.14.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vejle a 18.4% chance of the title and FC Fredericia 15.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vejle the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Vejle against 1.26 for FC Fredericia. Vejle's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.14 for FC Fredericia.
How the model reaches 36% for Vejle to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vejle to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Vejle's ratings take away 24 points and FC Fredericia's ratings add 16 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Vejle's ratings20%−24
- FC Fredericia's ratings36%+16
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vejle at home · FC Fredericia away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Vejle 11, FC Fredericia 11.
Vejle score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); FC Fredericia have let in 2 there.
FC Fredericia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Vejle have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Vejle
- vs HB Koge21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 59%
- at AB Copenhagen27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 31%
- vs Hobro6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 62%
FC Fredericia
- vs Hillerød19 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 59%
- at Hobro29 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 47%
- vs Hvidovre6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.