Ceara
vs
America Mineiro
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Ceara 1–0 America Mineiro
The model makes it 57% Ceara, 25% draw, 18% America Mineiro — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Ceara 1.88, America Mineiro 0.83.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to Ceara: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Ceara's rating is built from 34 Brazilian Serie B matches and America Mineiro's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Ceara are 16th on 43 points from 34 games; America Mineiro are 19th on 20 points from 34 games — Serie B.
- Ceara have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Juventude.
- America Mineiro have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Operario-PR.
- Last 6 meetings: Ceara 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 17 July 2026, ended America Mineiro 1–1 Ceara.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ceara vs America Mineiro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ceara at 57% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ceara vs America Mineiro
Ceara
Serie B
- D2-2Juventude17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Botafogo SP13 October 2026
- W1-0Criciuma8 October 2026
- W1-0away to Avai3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Operario-PR26 September 2026
America Mineiro
Serie B
- W1-0Operario-PR17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Criciuma12 October 2026
- L0-1Fortaleza EC7 October 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Goianiense3 October 2026
- L0-1Juventude28 September 2026
What these results say
- Ceara scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for America Mineiro had two goals or fewer.
- America Mineiro failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- America Mineiro failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 43 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 54 | -32 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ceara vs America Mineiro
- 17 July 2026America Mineiro 1–1 CearaSerie B
- 19 November 2024Ceara 1–0 America MineiroSerie B
- 28 July 2024America Mineiro 2–2 CearaSerie B
- 1 October 2022Ceara 1–2 America MineiroSerie A
- 8 June 2022America Mineiro 0–2 CearaSerie A
- 5 December 2021Ceara 0–0 America MineiroSerie A
Leading scorers: Ceara and America Mineiro
Ceara
GoalsAssists
- Melk75
America Mineiro
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ceara carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.06 for America Mineiro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Ceara and 0.83 for America Mineiro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ceara rate 0.59 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; America Mineiro rate 0.40 and 1.96.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ceara the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Ceara against 0.83 for America Mineiro. Ceara's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/1.96 for America Mineiro.
How the model reaches 57% for Ceara to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Ceara to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Ceara's ratings take away 25 points and America Mineiro's ratings add 38 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Ceara's ratings19%−25
- America Mineiro's ratings57%+38
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ceara at home · America Mineiro away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Ceara 34, America Mineiro 34.
Ceara score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); America Mineiro have let in 16 there.
America Mineiro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Ceara have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Ceara
- at CRB14 Nov · Serie Bwin 25%
America Mineiro
- vs Avai14 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.