Athletic Club MG
vs
Atletico Goianiense
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Athletic Club MG 1–0 Atletico Goianiense
The model makes it 37% Athletic Club MG, 29% draw, 34% Atletico Goianiense — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Athletic Club MG 1.34, Atletico Goianiense 1.24.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Athletic Club MG and Atletico Goianiense are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Athletic Club MG's rating is built from 73 Brazilian Serie B matches and Atletico Goianiense's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Athletic Club MG are 14th on 44 points from 35 games; Atletico Goianiense are 8th on 54 points from 35 games — Serie B.
- Athletic Club MG have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Operario-PR.
- Atletico Goianiense are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Novorizontino.
- Last 3 meetings: Atletico Goianiense 1 win to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Atletico Goianiense 0–0 Athletic Club MG.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Athletic Club MG vs Atletico Goianiense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Athletic Club MG at 37% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Athletic Club MG vs Atletico Goianiense
Athletic Club MG
Serie B
- L0-1away to Operario-PR23 October 2026
- D0-0away to Avai18 October 2026
- D2-2Londrina13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Goias6 October 2026
- L1-2Sport Recife1 October 2026
Atletico Goianiense
Serie B
- L0-1Novorizontino24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ponte Preta16 October 2026
- D1-1Sport Recife11 October 2026
- L1-3away to CRB7 October 2026
- W2-0America Mineiro3 October 2026
What these results say
- Athletic Club MG did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Athletic Club MG conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Goianiense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Goianiense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Goianiense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Athletic Club MG | 35 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 44 |
| 8 | Atletico Goianiense | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club MG vs Atletico Goianiense
- 18 July 2026Atletico Goianiense 0–0 Athletic Club MGSerie B
- 4 August 2025Athletic Club MG 1–1 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
- 7 April 2025Atletico Goianiense 4–2 Athletic Club MGSerie B
Leading scorers: Athletic Club MG and Atletico Goianiense
Athletic Club MG
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Atletico Goianiense
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo Coutinho130
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Athletic Club MG carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.44 for Atletico Goianiense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Athletic Club MG and 1.24 for Atletico Goianiense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Athletic Club MG rate 0.60 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Goianiense rate 0.60 and 1.37.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Atletico Goianiense, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Athletic Club MG the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Athletic Club MG against 1.24 for Atletico Goianiense. Athletic Club MG's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.37 for Atletico Goianiense.
How the model reaches 37% for Athletic Club MG to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Athletic Club MG to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Athletic Club MG's ratings take away 25 points and Atletico Goianiense's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Athletic Club MG's ratings19%−25
- Atletico Goianiense's ratings37%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Athletic Club MG at home · Atletico Goianiense away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Athletic Club MG 35, Atletico Goianiense 35.
Athletic Club MG score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Atletico Goianiense have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Athletic Club MG
- at São Bernardo14 Nov · Serie Bwin 24%
Atletico Goianiense
- vs Cuiaba14 Nov · Serie Bwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.