Beijing Guoan
vs
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Super League prediction
Our model says: Beijing Guoan 1–0 Chongqing Tongliang Long
The model makes it 57% Beijing Guoan, 25% draw, 18% Chongqing Tongliang Long — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Beijing Guoan 1.87, Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.82.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to Beijing Guoan: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Beijing Guoan's rating is built from 59 Chinese Super League matches and Chongqing Tongliang Long's from 29, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 712 matches.
Key facts
- Beijing Guoan are 3rd on 47 points from 29 games; Chongqing Tongliang Long are 9th on 36 points from 29 games — Super League.
- Beijing Guoan are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-3 win away to Henan Jianye.
- Chongqing Tongliang Long are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Qingdao Jonoon.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beijing Guoan at 57% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Beijing Guoan
Super League
- W4-3away to Henan Jianye24 October 2026
- W1-0Qingdao Youth Island18 October 2026
- W3-0away to Qingdao Jonoon9 October 2026
- D0-0away to SHANGHAI SIPG5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dalian Zhixing28 August 2026
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Super League
- W2-0Qingdao Jonoon24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Yunnan Yukun17 October 2026
- D1-1Shandong Luneng11 October 2026
- L1-3Shanghai Shenhua6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Henan Jianye29 August 2026
What these results say
- Beijing Guoan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Beijing Guoan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chongqing Tongliang Long scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chongqing Tongliang Long failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chongqing Tongliang Long conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 57 | 36 | +21 | 47 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
- 30 May 2026Chongqing Tongliang Long 2–3 Beijing GuoanSuper League
Leading scorers: Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long
Beijing Guoan
GoalsAssists
- Zhang Yuning147
- Fábio Abreu116
Chongqing Tongliang Long
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Beijing Guoan carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.24 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.82 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Beijing Guoan rate 0.70 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chongqing Tongliang Long rate 0.38 and 1.41.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beijing Guoan the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Beijing Guoan against 0.82 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. Beijing Guoan's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/1.41 for Chongqing Tongliang Long.
How the model reaches 57% for Beijing Guoan to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Beijing Guoan to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Beijing Guoan's ratings take away 20 points and Chongqing Tongliang Long's ratings add 32 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage45%+8
- Beijing Guoan's ratings25%−20
- Chongqing Tongliang Long's ratings57%+32
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Beijing Guoan at home · Chongqing Tongliang Long away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Beijing Guoan 29, Chongqing Tongliang Long 29.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Beijing Guoan
- at Daejeon Citizen24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 22%
- vs Ratchaburi1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 62%
- at Công An Nhân Dân9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 36%
Chongqing Tongliang Long
No further matches on our board yet.
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.