Dalian Zhixing
vs
Tianjin Teda
Super League prediction
Our model says: Dalian Zhixing 1–0 Tianjin Teda
The model makes it 43% Dalian Zhixing, 29% draw, 28% Tianjin Teda — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Dalian Zhixing 1.44, Tianjin Teda 1.05.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Dalian Zhixing's rating is built from 59 Chinese Super League matches and Tianjin Teda's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 712 matches.
Key facts
- Dalian Zhixing are 2nd on 49 points from 29 games; Tianjin Teda are 12th on 31 points from 29 games — Super League.
- Dalian Zhixing are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Chengdu Better City.
- Tianjin Teda have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to SHANGHAI SIPG.
- Last 3 meetings: Tianjin Teda 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended Tianjin Teda 1–0 Dalian Zhixing.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dalian Zhixing at 43% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda
Dalian Zhixing
Super League
- W1-0away to Chengdu Better City24 October 2026
- W3-1Sichuan Jiuniu17 October 2026
- W4-0away to Qingdao Youth Island11 October 2026
- W2-1Qingdao Jonoon5 September 2026
- D1-1Beijing Guoan28 August 2026
Tianjin Teda
Super League
- L1-3SHANGHAI SIPG24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Henan Jianye16 October 2026
- W1-0away to Chengdu Better City10 October 2026
- W1-0Shenyang Urban12 September 2026
- W2-1Hangzhou Greentown6 September 2026
What these results say
- Dalian Zhixing went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Dalian Zhixing scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dalian Zhixing won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tianjin Teda scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Tianjin Teda won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 46 | 43 | +3 | 49 |
| 12 | Tianjin Teda | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 39 | 35 | +4 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda
- 31 May 2026Tianjin Teda 1–0 Dalian ZhixingSuper League
- 16 August 2025Tianjin Teda 2–0 Dalian ZhixingSuper League
- 12 April 2025Dalian Zhixing 1–1 Tianjin TedaSuper League
Leading scorers: Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda
Dalian Zhixing
GoalsAssists
- F. Acheampong124
- N. Stanciu105
Tianjin Teda
GoalsAssists
- Alberto Quiles115
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dalian Zhixing carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.33 for Tianjin Teda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.05 for Tianjin Teda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dalian Zhixing rate 0.55 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tianjin Teda rate 0.47 and 1.38.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dalian Zhixing the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing against 1.05 for Tianjin Teda. Dalian Zhixing's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.38 for Tianjin Teda.
How the model reaches 43% for Dalian Zhixing to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Dalian Zhixing to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Dalian Zhixing's ratings take away 26 points and Tianjin Teda's ratings add 24 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage45%+8
- Dalian Zhixing's ratings19%−26
- Tianjin Teda's ratings43%+24
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dalian Zhixing at home · Tianjin Teda away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Dalian Zhixing 29, Tianjin Teda 29.
Tianjin Teda score most often in the 76–90 minute window (19 goals); Dalian Zhixing have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.