Pisa
vs
Sudtirol
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Pisa 1–0 Sudtirol
The model makes it 51% Pisa, 27% draw, 22% Sudtirol — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Pisa 1.71, Sudtirol 0.95.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to Pisa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Pisa's rating is built from 7 Serie B matches and Sudtirol's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 850 matches.
Key facts
- Pisa are 3rd on 13 points from 7 games; Sudtirol are 5th on 12 points from 7 games — Serie B.
- Pisa are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Cremonese.
- Sudtirol have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Juve Stabia.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2025, ended Pisa 3–3 Sudtirol.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pisa vs Sudtirol
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pisa at 51% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Pisa vs Sudtirol
Pisa
Serie B
- W3-1Cremonese17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Vicenza Virtus10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Mantova20 September 2026
- L1-4Virtus Entella11 September 2026
- W3-0away to Juve Stabia6 September 2026
Sudtirol
Serie B
- L0-3away to Juve Stabia18 October 2026
- D0-0Ascoli10 October 2026
- W4-1away to Arezzo20 September 2026
- D1-1Modena12 September 2026
- W2-0Catanzaro5 September 2026
What these results say
- Pisa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Pisa had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Pisa | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 13 |
| 5 | Sudtirol | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Pisa vs Sudtirol
- 9 May 2025Pisa 3–3 SudtirolSerie B
- 19 October 2024Sudtirol 1–2 PisaSerie B
- 5 May 2024Pisa 2–2 SudtirolSerie B
- 11 November 2023Sudtirol 1–2 PisaSerie B
- 4 February 2023Pisa 0–1 SudtirolSerie B
- 4 September 2022Sudtirol 2–1 PisaSerie B
Leading scorers: Pisa and Sudtirol
Pisa
GoalsAssists
- M. Tramoni24
- S. Moreo22
Sudtirol
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Pisa carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.5 for Sudtirol. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Pisa and 0.95 for Sudtirol. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pisa rate 0.93 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sudtirol rate 0.60 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pisa a 10.7% chance of the title and Sudtirol 1.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pisa the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Pisa against 0.95 for Sudtirol. Pisa's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.23 for Sudtirol.
How the model reaches 51% for Pisa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Pisa to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Pisa's ratings take away 9 points and Sudtirol's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Pisa's ratings33%−9
- Sudtirol's ratings51%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pisa at home · Sudtirol away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PisaSudtirol
Pisa are 3rd after 7 Serie B matches (between 3rd and 18th so far); Sudtirol are 5th after 7 (between 1st and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Pisa 7, Sudtirol 7.
Pisa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Sudtirol have let in 4 there.
Sudtirol score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Pisa have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Pisa
- at Empoli21 Nov · Serie Bwin 44%
- vs Modena24 Nov · Serie Bwin 46%
Sudtirol
- vs Cremonese21 Nov · Serie Bwin 44%
- at Palermo24 Nov · Serie Bwin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.