Criciuma
vs
Ponte Preta
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Criciuma 2–0 Ponte Preta
The model makes it 74% Criciuma, 18% draw, 8% Ponte Preta — fair odds of 1.35, 5.56 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Criciuma 2.51, Ponte Preta 0.53.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Criciuma are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Criciuma are 5th on 56 points from 33 games; Ponte Preta are bottom on 13 points from 33 games — Serie B.
- Criciuma have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to America Mineiro.
- Ponte Preta are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Novorizontino.
- Last 6 meetings: Criciuma 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 8 July 2026, ended Ponte Preta 1–2 Criciuma.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Criciuma vs Ponte Preta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Criciuma at 74% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Criciuma vs Ponte Preta
Criciuma
- W1-0America Mineiro12 October 2026
- L0-1away to Ceara8 October 2026
- W2-0away to Londrina2 October 2026
- W3-0Avai27 September 2026
- L0-2Operario-PR22 September 2026
Ponte Preta
- L1-5away to Novorizontino12 October 2026
- L0-2Juventude7 October 2026
- L0-2away to Cuiaba3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Botafogo SP29 September 2026
- W1-0CRB20 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Criciuma had two goals or fewer.
- Ponte Preta failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ponte Preta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ponte Preta had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Criciuma | 33 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 28 | +6 | 56 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 73 | -55 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Criciuma vs Ponte Preta
- 8 July 2026Ponte Preta 1–2 CriciumaSerie B
- 2 August 2023Criciuma 2–1 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 22 April 2023Ponte Preta 1–2 CriciumaSerie B
- 29 October 2022Ponte Preta 1–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 15 July 2022Criciuma 1–1 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 9 April 2021Criciuma 1–1 Ponte PretaCopa Do Brasil
A clear gap in the ratings
Criciuma carry a model rating of 6.41 against 5.77 for Ponte Preta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.51 goals for Criciuma and 0.53 for Ponte Preta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Criciuma rate 0.54 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ponte Preta rate 0.33 and 2.86.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Criciuma a 1.2% chance of the title and Ponte Preta 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Criciuma the highest probability at 74%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Criciuma against 0.53 for Ponte Preta. Criciuma's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.33/2.86 for Ponte Preta.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Criciuma at home · Ponte Preta away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Criciuma 33, Ponte Preta 33.
Ponte Preta score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Criciuma have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Criciuma
- at Vila Nova6 Nov · Serie Bwin 25%
- vs Novorizontino14 Nov · Serie Bwin 31%
Ponte Preta
- at Goias8 Nov · Serie Bwin 9%
- vs Operario-PR14 Nov · Serie Bwin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.