Gnistan
vs
VPS
Finnish Premier League prediction
Our model says: Gnistan 2–1 VPS
The model makes it 47% Gnistan, 25% draw, 28% VPS — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Gnistan 1.82, VPS 1.28.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Gnistan's rating is built from 61 Finnish Premier League matches and VPS's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 516 matches.
Key facts
- Gnistan are 5th on 42 points from 29 games; VPS are bottom on 39 points from 29 games — Finnish Premier League.
- Gnistan have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to AC Oulu.
- VPS have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Inter Turku.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 12 October 2026, ended VPS 1–0 Gnistan.
More Finnish Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gnistan vs VPS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gnistan at 47% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gnistan vs VPS
Gnistan
Finnish Premier League
- L3-4AC Oulu24 October 2026
- L0-4away to HJK Helsinki17 October 2026
- L0-1away to VPS12 October 2026
- D0-0Inter Turku7 October 2026
- D1-1HJK Helsinki18 September 2026
VPS
Finnish Premier League
- L0-1Inter Turku24 October 2026
- L0-2away to KuPS18 October 2026
- W1-0Gnistan12 October 2026
- L0-6away to HJK Helsinki8 October 2026
- L0-2KuPS19 September 2026
What these results say
- Gnistan did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Gnistan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- VPS failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VPS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Finnish Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Gnistan | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 42 |
| 6 | VPS | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gnistan vs VPS
- 12 October 2026VPS 1–0 GnistanFinnish Premier League
- 27 June 2026Gnistan 1–1 VPSFinnish Premier League
- 9 May 2026VPS 1–1 GnistanFinnish Premier League
- 15 August 2025Gnistan 0–0 VPSFinnish Premier League
- 18 June 2025VPS 0–0 GnistanFinnish Premier League
- 23 October 2024VPS 0–1 GnistanFinnish Premier League
Leading scorers: Gnistan and VPS
Gnistan
GoalsAssists
- A. Akinyemi50
VPS
GoalsAssists
- L. Smyth50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gnistan carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.1 for VPS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Gnistan and 1.28 for VPS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gnistan rate 0.57 in attack and 2.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VPS rate 0.42 and 1.91.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gnistan the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Gnistan against 1.28 for VPS. Gnistan's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/1.91 for VPS.
How the model reaches 47% for Gnistan to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Gnistan to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Gnistan's ratings take away 31 points and VPS's ratings add 36 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- Gnistan's ratings11%−31
- VPS's ratings47%+36
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gnistan at home · VPS away
League matches only, Finnish Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Finnish Premier League matches this season: Gnistan 29, VPS 29.
VPS score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Gnistan have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.