Club Guarani
vs
2 de Mayo
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Club Guarani 1–0 2 de Mayo
The model makes it 46% Club Guarani, 29% draw, 25% 2 de Mayo — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Club Guarani 1.47, 2 de Mayo 0.96.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,028 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Club Guarani's rating is built from 37 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and 2 de Mayo's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Club Guarani are 6th on 22 points from 15 games; 2 de Mayo are 3rd on 28 points from 15 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Club Guarani are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Nacional Asuncion.
- 2 de Mayo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Olimpia.
- Last 6 meetings: 2 de Mayo 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 August 2026, ended 2 de Mayo 0–0 Club Guarani.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Club Guarani vs 2 de Mayo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Guarani at 46% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 2,030 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Club Guarani vs 2 de Mayo
Club Guarani
- L0-2Nacional Asuncion17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Libertad Asuncion11 October 2026
- D1-1Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Sportivo Luqueno25 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sportivo Trinidense18 September 2026
2 de Mayo
- L0-3away to Olimpia17 October 2026
- W1-0Sportivo Ameliano12 October 2026
- W2-0away to Cerro Porteno5 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rubio NU26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nacional Asuncion18 September 2026
What these results say
- Club Guarani scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Club Guarani had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Club Guarani | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 22 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Club Guarani
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
2 de Mayo
Chance to finish in the top four · 56% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Club Guarani vs 2 de Mayo
- 25 August 20262 de Mayo 0–0 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 26 April 20262 de Mayo 2–2 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 25 March 2026Club Guarani 1–1 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 5 November 20252 de Mayo 1–0 Club GuaraniCopa Paraguay
- 12 September 20252 de Mayo 1–0 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 6 July 2025Club Guarani 3–1 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
Leading scorers: Club Guarani and 2 de Mayo
Club Guarani
GoalsAssists
- S. Zaracho31
2 de Mayo
GoalsAssists
- D. Acosta51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Club Guarani carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.42 for 2 de Mayo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Club Guarani and 0.96 for 2 de Mayo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club Guarani rate 0.62 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 2 de Mayo rate 0.62 and 1.46.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour 2 de Mayo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Guarani a 0.1% chance of the title and 2 de Mayo 4.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Guarani the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Club Guarani against 0.96 for 2 de Mayo. Club Guarani's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.46 for 2 de Mayo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Club Guarani at home · 2 de Mayo away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Club Guarani 15, 2 de Mayo 15.
Club Guarani score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); 2 de Mayo have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Club Guarani
- at Sportivo Ameliano8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 34%
- vs Olimpia15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 34%
- at Deportivo Recoleta18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 41%
- at Cerro Porteno25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 27%
2 de Mayo
- vs Sportivo Trinidense8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 36%
- at Sportivo Luqueno15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 40%
- vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 63%
- at Libertad Asuncion25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.