Deportivo Recoleta
vs
Sportivo Ameliano
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Recoleta 2–1 Sportivo Ameliano
The model makes it 38% Deportivo Recoleta, 27% draw, 35% Sportivo Ameliano — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Deportivo Recoleta 1.54, Sportivo Ameliano 1.44.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 930 settled matches.
A tight game: Deportivo Recoleta and Sportivo Ameliano are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Deportivo Recoleta's rating is built from 37 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Sportivo Ameliano's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Deportivo Recoleta are 11th on 11 points from 15 games; Sportivo Ameliano are 8th on 19 points from 15 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Deportivo Recoleta have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Rubio NU.
- Sportivo Ameliano have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Cerro Porteno.
- Last 6 meetings: Deportivo Recoleta 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 August 2026, ended Sportivo Ameliano 3–1 Deportivo Recoleta.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Ameliano
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Recoleta at 38% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 3,397 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Ameliano
Deportivo Recoleta
- W1-0Rubio NU16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Nacional Asuncion12 October 2026
- L1-2Libertad Asuncion5 October 2026
- D0-0away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo28 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sportivo Luqueno20 September 2026
Sportivo Ameliano
- D2-2away to Cerro Porteno18 October 2026
- L0-1away to 2 de Mayo12 October 2026
- L1-2Rubio NU6 October 2026
- D1-1away to Nacional Asuncion25 September 2026
- D1-1away to Libertad Asuncion19 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Recoleta failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo Recoleta had two goals or fewer.
- Sportivo Ameliano did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 11 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Deportivo Recoleta
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 87% today
Sportivo Ameliano
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 3% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Ameliano
- 22 August 2026Sportivo Ameliano 3–1 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 11 May 2026Sportivo Ameliano 3–2 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 9 March 2026Deportivo Recoleta 1–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 29 September 2025Sportivo Ameliano 1–4 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 21 July 2025Deportivo Recoleta 3–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 10 May 2025Sportivo Ameliano 1–2 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Deportivo Recoleta and Sportivo Ameliano
Deportivo Recoleta
GoalsAssists
- A. Wlk131
Sportivo Ameliano
GoalsAssists
- C. Ocampos53
- R. Torales51
- E. Moreira50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo Recoleta carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.36 for Sportivo Ameliano. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Deportivo Recoleta and 1.44 for Sportivo Ameliano. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Recoleta rate 0.58 in attack and 1.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sportivo Ameliano rate 0.61 and 1.63.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sportivo Ameliano, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Recoleta the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Deportivo Recoleta against 1.44 for Sportivo Ameliano. Deportivo Recoleta's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.63 for Sportivo Ameliano.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Recoleta at home · Sportivo Ameliano away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Deportivo Recoleta 15, Sportivo Ameliano 15.
Deportivo Recoleta score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Sportivo Ameliano have let in 3 there.
Sportivo Ameliano score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Deportivo Recoleta have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo Recoleta
- at Olimpia8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 12%
- at Cerro Porteno15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 17%
- vs Club Guarani18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 31%
- at Sportivo Trinidense25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 15%
Sportivo Ameliano
- vs Club Guarani8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 37%
- at Sportivo Trinidense15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 20%
- vs Sportivo Luqueno18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 55%
- at Club Sp. San Lorenzo25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.