Korona Kielce
vs
Radomiak Radom
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Korona Kielce 1–0 Radomiak Radom
The model makes it 50% Korona Kielce, 26% draw, 24% Radomiak Radom — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Korona Kielce 1.77, Radomiak Radom 1.04.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to Korona Kielce: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Korona Kielce's rating is built from 45 Ekstraklasa matches and Radomiak Radom's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 711 matches.
Key facts
- Korona Kielce are 9th on 15 points from 11 games; Radomiak Radom are 16th on 8 points from 11 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Korona Kielce have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to Lech Poznan.
- Radomiak Radom have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Wisla Plock.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended Radomiak Radom 0–2 Korona Kielce.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Korona Kielce at 50% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom
Korona Kielce
Ekstraklasa
- L1-6away to Lech Poznan18 October 2026
- L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin11 October 2026
- W3-2Raków Częstochowa19 September 2026
- L0-2Gornik Zabrze15 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slask Wroclaw12 September 2026
Radomiak Radom
Ekstraklasa
- L0-1away to Wisla Plock19 October 2026
- L2-3Motor Lublin12 October 2026
- L1-5away to Lech Poznan20 September 2026
- L0-2Piast Gliwice14 September 2026
- D0-0away to Widzew Łódź5 September 2026
What these results say
- Korona Kielce conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Radomiak Radom did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Radomiak Radom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 15 |
| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom
- 13 February 2026Radomiak Radom 0–2 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 8 August 2025Korona Kielce 3–0 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 30 March 2025Korona Kielce 1–3 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 20 September 2024Radomiak Radom 4–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 26 June 2024Radomiak Radom 3–0 Korona KielceFriendlies Clubs
- 19 April 2024Korona Kielce 4–0 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom
Korona Kielce
GoalsAssists
- M. Stępiński60
Radomiak Radom
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Korona Kielce carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.41 for Radomiak Radom. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Korona Kielce and 1.04 for Radomiak Radom. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Korona Kielce rate 0.69 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radomiak Radom rate 0.64 and 1.55.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Korona Kielce the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Korona Kielce against 1.04 for Radomiak Radom. Korona Kielce's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.55 for Radomiak Radom.
How the model reaches 50% for Korona Kielce to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Korona Kielce to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Korona Kielce's ratings take away 17 points and Radomiak Radom's ratings add 23 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Korona Kielce's ratings27%−17
- Radomiak Radom's ratings50%+23
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Korona Kielce at home · Radomiak Radom away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Korona KielceRadomiak Radom
Korona Kielce are 9th after 11 Ekstraklasa matches (between 5th and 18th so far); Radomiak Radom are 16th after 11 (between 1st and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Korona Kielce 11, Radomiak Radom 11.
Korona Kielce score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Radomiak Radom have let in 2 there.
Radomiak Radom score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Korona Kielce have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Korona Kielce
- at Piast Gliwice21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 24%
- vs Cracovia Krakow28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 42%
- at Wieczysta Kraków5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 29%
Radomiak Radom
- vs Wisla Krakow21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 29%
- at Jagiellonia28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 20%
- vs Raków Częstochowa5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.