Sigma Olomouc
vs
Zbrojovka Brno
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Sigma Olomouc 1–0 Zbrojovka Brno
The model makes it 48% Sigma Olomouc, 27% draw, 25% Zbrojovka Brno — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sigma Olomouc 1.67, Zbrojovka Brno 1.07.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Sigma Olomouc: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sigma Olomouc are 2nd on 20 points from 11 games; Zbrojovka Brno are 8th on 16 points from 10 games — Czech Liga.
- Sigma Olomouc have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Slovan Liberec.
- Zbrojovka Brno have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to FK Jablonec.
- Last 6 meetings: Sigma Olomouc 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 November 2022, ended Zbrojovka Brno 2–3 Sigma Olomouc.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sigma Olomouc at 48% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno
Sigma Olomouc
- W1-0Slovan Liberec17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Teplice11 October 2026
- L0-3Sparta Praha20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Plzen13 September 2026
- W3-0Bohemians 19055 September 2026
Zbrojovka Brno
- L0-1FK Jablonec10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Mlada Boleslav19 September 2026
- W2-1Artis12 September 2026
- L0-4away to Slavia Praha5 September 2026
- W1-0Hradec Králové2 September 2026
What these results say
- Sigma Olomouc scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zbrojovka Brno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sigma Olomouc | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 20 |
| 8 | Zbrojovka Brno | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sigma Olomouc
Chance to finish in the top four · 38% today
Zbrojovka Brno
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno
- 13 November 2022Zbrojovka Brno 2–3 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 6 August 2022Sigma Olomouc 0–2 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 3 July 2021Sigma Olomouc 2–0 Zbrojovka BrnoFriendlies Clubs
- 20 February 2021Sigma Olomouc 1–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 20 September 2020Zbrojovka Brno 2–4 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 5 August 2020Sigma Olomouc 0–2 Zbrojovka BrnoFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno
Sigma Olomouc
GoalsAssists
- A. Ghali41
- V. Sejk33
- P. Baráth31
Zbrojovka Brno
GoalsAssists
- D. Vašulín40
- A. Vaníček31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sigma Olomouc carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.59 for Zbrojovka Brno. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.07 for Zbrojovka Brno. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sigma Olomouc rate 0.92 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zbrojovka Brno rate 0.71 and 1.20.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sigma Olomouc a 0.4% chance of the title and Zbrojovka Brno 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sigma Olomouc the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc against 1.07 for Zbrojovka Brno. Sigma Olomouc's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.2 for Zbrojovka Brno.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sigma Olomouc at home · Zbrojovka Brno away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Sigma Olomouc 11, Zbrojovka Brno 10.
Sigma Olomouc score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Zbrojovka Brno have let in 1 there.
Zbrojovka Brno score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Sigma Olomouc have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sigma Olomouc
- at Hradec Králové7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 34%
- vs Slavia Praha21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 21%
- at Mlada Boleslav28 Nov · Czech Ligawin 34%
- vs Artis5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 62%
Zbrojovka Brno
- vs Baník Ostrava7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 46%
- at Pardubice22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 31%
- vs Plzen29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.