Baník Ostrava
vs
Sparta Praha
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Baník Ostrava 0–2 Sparta Praha
The model makes it 22% Baník Ostrava, 26% draw, 52% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 4.55, 3.85 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Baník Ostrava 0.96, Sparta Praha 2.09.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Baník Ostrava are 11th on 10 points from 9 games; Sparta Praha are 7th on 15 points from 9 games — Czech Liga.
- Baník Ostrava are without a win in 4, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Slovácko.
- Sparta Praha have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win away to Sigma Olomouc.
- Last 6 meetings: Sparta Praha 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Sparta Praha 5–2 Baník Ostrava.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 52% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha
Baník Ostrava
- D2-2away to Slovácko19 September 2026
- L1-2Pardubice13 September 2026
- L0-3away to FK Jablonec9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Mlada Boleslav6 September 2026
- W1-0Sigma Olomouc29 August 2026
Sparta Praha
- W3-0away to Sigma Olomouc20 September 2026
- W2-0FK Jablonec12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové6 September 2026
- L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
- W4-0away to Artis22 August 2026
What these results say
- Baník Ostrava failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baník Ostrava conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Baník Ostrava had three goals or more.
- Sparta Praha scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sparta Praha had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Baník Ostrava | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 10 |
| 7 | Sparta Praha | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha
- 28 February 2026Sparta Praha 5–2 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 27 September 2025Baník Ostrava 0–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 18 May 2025Baník Ostrava 3–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 5 April 2025Baník Ostrava 1–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 2 November 2024Sparta Praha 1–3 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 14 May 2024Sparta Praha 2–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha
Baník Ostrava
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Sparta Praha
- J. Mercado4 goals1 assist
- J. Alcócer4 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Baník Ostrava carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.95 for Sparta Praha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.96 goals for Baník Ostrava and 2.09 for Sparta Praha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Baník Ostrava rate 0.66 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sparta Praha rate 1.17 and 0.96.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Baník Ostrava a 0% chance of the title and Sparta Praha 3.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Baník Ostrava against 2.09 for Sparta Praha. Baník Ostrava's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.96 for Sparta Praha.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Baník Ostrava at home · Sparta Praha away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Baník Ostrava 9, Sparta Praha 9.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Baník Ostrava
- at Slovan Liberec24 Oct · Czech Ligawin 21%
- vs Plzen1 Nov · Czech Ligawin 26%
- at Zbrojovka Brno7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 26%
- vs Teplice21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 30%
Sparta Praha
- at Olympiakos Piraeus22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 29%
- vs Slovácko25 Oct · Czech Ligawin 60%
- at Bohemians 19051 Nov · Czech Ligawin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.