FK Jablonec
vs
Plzen
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: FK Jablonec 1–2 Plzen
The model makes it 30% FK Jablonec, 28% draw, 42% Plzen — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FK Jablonec 1.28, Plzen 1.70.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- FK Jablonec are 8th on 14 points from 9 games; Plzen are 10th on 10 points from 9 games — Czech Liga.
- FK Jablonec have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Zlin.
- Plzen are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Slavia Praha.
- Last 6 meetings: Plzen 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Plzen 5–0 FK Jablonec.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FK Jablonec vs Plzen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Plzen at 42% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FK Jablonec vs Plzen
FK Jablonec
- D1-1Zlin20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha12 September 2026
- W3-0Baník Ostrava9 September 2026
- L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bohemians 19052 September 2026
Plzen
- L1-2away to Slavia Praha20 September 2026
- L2-3Sigma Olomouc13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hradec Králové9 September 2026
- W3-0away to Artis5 September 2026
- D1-1Slovácko30 August 2026
What these results say
- FK Jablonec failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Jablonec scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Jablonec conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Plzen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Plzen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FK Jablonec | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | Plzen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Plzen
- 17 May 2026Plzen 5–0 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 23 November 2025FK Jablonec 3–3 PlzenCzech Liga
- 26 July 2025Plzen 1–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 24 May 2025Plzen 4–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 1 December 2024Plzen 3–2 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 3 August 2024FK Jablonec 0–0 PlzenCzech Liga
The two sides
FK Jablonec carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.84 for Plzen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for FK Jablonec and 1.70 for Plzen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Jablonec rate 0.74 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Plzen rate 1.10 and 1.14.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FK Jablonec, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FK Jablonec a 0.1% chance of the title and Plzen 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Plzen the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for FK Jablonec against 1.70 for Plzen. FK Jablonec's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.14 for Plzen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FK Jablonec at home · Plzen away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: FK Jablonec 9, Plzen 9.
FK Jablonec score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Plzen have let in 1 there.
Plzen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); FK Jablonec have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FK Jablonec
- vs Brighton22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 24%
- at Hradec Králové25 Oct · Czech Ligawin 28%
- vs Slavia Praha31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 20%
Plzen
- vs Levski Sofia22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 43%
- vs Pardubice25 Oct · Czech Ligawin 52%
- at Baník Ostrava1 Nov · Czech Ligawin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.