Slovácko
vs
Zbrojovka Brno
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Slovácko 0–1 Zbrojovka Brno
The model makes it 32% Slovácko, 30% draw, 38% Zbrojovka Brno — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Slovácko 1.12, Zbrojovka Brno 1.36.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Slovácko are 15th on 4 points from 9 games; Zbrojovka Brno are 6th on 16 points from 9 games — Czech Liga.
- Slovácko have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Baník Ostrava.
- Zbrojovka Brno have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Mlada Boleslav.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 June 2024, ended Zbrojovka Brno 1–0 Slovácko.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Slovácko vs Zbrojovka Brno
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zbrojovka Brno at 38% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Slovácko vs Zbrojovka Brno
Slovácko
- D2-2Baník Ostrava19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bohemians 190512 September 2026
- D0-0Pardubice5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Plzen30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Mlada Boleslav22 August 2026
Zbrojovka Brno
- L0-2away to Mlada Boleslav19 September 2026
- W2-1Artis12 September 2026
- L0-4away to Slavia Praha5 September 2026
- W1-0Hradec Králové2 September 2026
- W3-2Zlin29 August 2026
What these results say
- Slovácko did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Slovácko conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zbrojovka Brno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Slovácko | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 4 |
| 6 | Zbrojovka Brno | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Slovácko vs Zbrojovka Brno
- 29 June 2024Zbrojovka Brno 1–0 SlováckoFriendlies Clubs
- 30 April 2023Slovácko 1–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 30 July 2022Zbrojovka Brno 2–2 SlováckoCzech Liga
- 21 April 2021Slovácko 4–2 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 16 December 2020Zbrojovka Brno 2–1 SlováckoCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Slovácko and Zbrojovka Brno
Slovácko
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Zbrojovka Brno
- D. Vašulín4 goals
- A. Vaníček3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Slovácko carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.64 for Zbrojovka Brno. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Slovácko and 1.36 for Zbrojovka Brno. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slovácko rate 0.63 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zbrojovka Brno rate 0.77 and 1.17.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Slovácko a 0% chance of the title and Zbrojovka Brno 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zbrojovka Brno the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Slovácko against 1.36 for Zbrojovka Brno. Slovácko's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.17 for Zbrojovka Brno.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Slovácko at home · Zbrojovka Brno away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Slovácko 9, Zbrojovka Brno 9.
Slovácko score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Zbrojovka Brno have let in 3 there.
Zbrojovka Brno score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Slovácko have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Slovácko
- at Sparta Praha25 Oct · Czech Ligawin 16%
- vs Teplice31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 29%
- at Zlin7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 34%
- vs Hradec Králové22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 29%
Zbrojovka Brno
- vs Bohemians 190524 Oct · Czech Ligawin 39%
- at Sigma Olomouc31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 30%
- vs Baník Ostrava7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 45%
- at Pardubice22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.