Deportivo Cali
vs
Deportes Tolima
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Cali 1–0 Deportes Tolima
The model makes it 49% Deportivo Cali, 31% draw, 20% Deportes Tolima — fair odds of 2.04, 3.23 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (18%).
Expected goals: Deportivo Cali 1.30, Deportes Tolima 0.64.
Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,360 settled matches.
Edge to Deportivo Cali: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 29 October 2026. Deportivo Cali's rating is built from 75 Colombian Primera A matches and Deportes Tolima's from 93, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,243 matches.
Key facts
- Deportivo Cali are 3rd on 30 points from 16 games; Deportes Tolima are 11th on 20 points from 16 games — Primera A.
- Deportivo Cali are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Fortaleza FC.
- Deportes Tolima have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Deportivo Pasto.
- Last 6 meetings: Deportes Tolima 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Deportes Tolima 1–1 Deportivo Cali.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Cali at 49% here. Across 5,105 settled matches (as of 29 October 2026), 2,359 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Cali
Primera A
- D1-1away to Fortaleza FC25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Llaneros21 October 2026
- D0-0Junior19 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pereira10 October 2026
- W3-1Alianza Valledupar3 October 2026
Deportes Tolima
Primera A
- L0-1Deportivo Pasto26 October 2026
- L1-2away to Águilas Doradas18 October 2026
- L2-3away to Jaguares11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Nacional8 October 2026
- D0-0Chico3 October 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Cali went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Deportes Tolima did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 30 |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima
- 3 May 2026Deportes Tolima 1–1 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 25 October 2025Deportes Tolima 2–1 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 3 May 2025Deportivo Cali 1–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 8 September 2024Deportes Tolima 1–1 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 27 February 2024Deportivo Cali 1–2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 30 November 2023Deportivo Cali 0–2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Cali and Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Cali
GoalsAssists
- S. Rodríguez113
Deportes Tolima
GoalsAssists
- A. Parra94
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Deportivo Cali carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.51 for Deportes Tolima. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Deportivo Cali and 0.64 for Deportes Tolima. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Cali rate 0.70 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportes Tolima rate 0.64 and 1.28.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Deportivo Cali a 4.1% chance of the title and Deportes Tolima 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,464 correct results out of 5,119 settled predictions (48%), with 510 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Cali the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Deportivo Cali against 0.64 for Deportes Tolima. Deportivo Cali's attack/defence rating is 0.7/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.28 for Deportes Tolima.
How the model reaches 49% for Deportivo Cali to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Deportivo Cali to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Deportivo Cali's ratings add 3 points and Deportes Tolima's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Both sides at this match's level41%−3
- Deportivo Cali's ratings44%+3
- Deportes Tolima's ratings49%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Cali at home · Deportes Tolima away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Deportivo Cali 34, Deportes Tolima 38.
Deportivo Cali score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Deportes Tolima have let in 6 there.
Deportes Tolima score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Deportivo Cali have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.