Deportivo Pereira
vs
Jaguares
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Jaguares
The model makes it 39% Deportivo Pereira, 29% draw, 32% Jaguares — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Deportivo Pereira 1.28, Jaguares 1.11.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Deportivo Pereira are 19th on 10 points from 13 games; Jaguares are 18th on 10 points from 12 games — Primera A.
- Deportivo Pereira have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Junior.
- Jaguares have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Deportes Tolima.
- Last 6 meetings: Deportivo Pereira 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 May 2026, ended Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Jaguares.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo Pereira vs Jaguares
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Pereira at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportivo Pereira vs Jaguares
Deportivo Pereira
- D1-1away to Junior14 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Cali10 October 2026
- L0-4away to Cucuta4 October 2026
- L1-2Santa Fe29 September 2026
- D0-0Internacional de Bogota26 September 2026
Jaguares
- W3-2Deportes Tolima11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Águilas Doradas3 October 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar27 September 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin22 September 2026
- D2-2Fortaleza FC11 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Pereira did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 10 |
| 18 | Jaguares | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pereira vs Jaguares
- 26 May 2026Deportivo Pereira 1–0 JaguaresCopa Colombia
- 9 February 2026Jaguares 1–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 1 November 2024Jaguares 1–2 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 14 April 2024Deportivo Pereira 0–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 19 August 2023Deportivo Pereira 3–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 26 February 2023Jaguares 2–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Pereira and Jaguares
Deportivo Pereira
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Jaguares
GoalsAssists
- A. Rentería103
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo Pereira carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.3 for Jaguares. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Deportivo Pereira and 1.11 for Jaguares. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Pereira rate 0.45 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jaguares rate 0.64 and 1.96.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jaguares, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Pereira the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Deportivo Pereira against 1.11 for Jaguares. Deportivo Pereira's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.96 for Jaguares.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Pereira at home · Jaguares away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Deportivo Pereira 30, Jaguares 30.
Jaguares score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Deportivo Pereira have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo Pereira
- vs Deportes Tolima3 Nov · Primera Awin 26%
- at Atletico Nacional7 Nov · Primera Awin 9%
- vs America de Cali12 Nov · Primera Awin 21%
Jaguares
- at Deportivo Pasto5 Nov · Primera Awin 25%
- vs Bucaramanga8 Nov · Primera Awin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.