Cucuta
vs
Jaguares
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Cucuta 2–1 Jaguares
The model makes it 49% Cucuta, 26% draw, 25% Jaguares — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cucuta 1.85, Jaguares 1.17.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,360 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 29 October 2026. Cucuta's rating is built from 35 Colombian Primera A matches and Jaguares's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,243 matches.
Key facts
- Cucuta are 10th on 21 points from 16 games; Jaguares are 18th on 13 points from 15 games — Primera A.
- Cucuta have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Águilas Doradas.
- Jaguares have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Llaneros.
- Last 6 meetings: Cucuta 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Jaguares 2–0 Cucuta.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cucuta vs Jaguares
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cucuta at 49% here. Across 5,105 settled matches (as of 29 October 2026), 2,359 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cucuta vs Jaguares
Cucuta
Primera A
- L0-2Águilas Doradas27 October 2026
- L1-3away to America de Cali24 October 2026
- W1-0Atletico Nacional20 October 2026
- W1-0away to Chico11 October 2026
- W4-0Deportivo Pereira4 October 2026
Jaguares
Primera A
- W1-0Llaneros26 October 2026
- L1-2away to Santa Fe22 October 2026
- L1-4away to Millonarios17 October 2026
- W3-2Deportes Tolima11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Águilas Doradas3 October 2026
What these results say
- Cucuta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cucuta | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 21 |
| 18 | Jaguares | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cucuta vs Jaguares
- 2 May 2026Jaguares 2–0 CucutaPrimera A
- 15 November 2025Jaguares 1–2 CucutaPrimera B
- 11 November 2025Cucuta 2–2 JaguaresPrimera B
- 21 September 2025Cucuta 1–2 JaguaresPrimera B
- 1 May 2025Jaguares 1–2 CucutaPrimera B
- 10 March 2020Jaguares 0–3 CucutaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Cucuta and Jaguares
Cucuta
GoalsAssists
- J. Peralta92
Jaguares
GoalsAssists
- A. Rentería123
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cucuta carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.3 for Jaguares. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for Cucuta and 1.17 for Jaguares. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cucuta rate 0.64 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jaguares rate 0.65 and 1.99.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,464 correct results out of 5,119 settled predictions (48%), with 510 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cucuta the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Cucuta against 1.17 for Jaguares. Cucuta's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.99 for Jaguares.
How the model reaches 49% for Cucuta to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Cucuta to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Cucuta's ratings add 2 points and Jaguares's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Cucuta's ratings48%+2
- Jaguares's ratings49%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cucuta at home · Jaguares away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Cucuta 34, Jaguares 33.
Cucuta score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Jaguares have let in 9 there.
Jaguares score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Cucuta have let in 15 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.