Deportivo Pasto
vs
Junior
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Pasto 0–1 Junior
The model makes it 33% Deportivo Pasto, 30% draw, 37% Junior — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Deportivo Pasto 1.16, Junior 1.24.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,071 settled matches.
Edge to Junior: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 29 October 2026. Deportivo Pasto's rating is built from 76 Colombian Primera A matches and Junior's from 95, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,243 matches.
Key facts
- Deportivo Pasto are bottom on 12 points from 15 games; Junior are 15th on 16 points from 16 games — Primera A.
- Deportivo Pasto have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Deportes Tolima.
- Junior are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Chico.
- Last 6 meetings: Junior 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Junior 4–3 Deportivo Pasto.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo Pasto vs Junior
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Junior at 37% here. Across 5,105 settled matches (as of 29 October 2026), 3,897 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportivo Pasto vs Junior
Deportivo Pasto
Primera A
- W1-0away to Deportes Tolima26 October 2026
- L0-3away to Atletico Nacional23 October 2026
- L0-1Alianza Valledupar20 October 2026
- D0-0Fortaleza FC4 October 2026
- L0-3away to Chico25 September 2026
Junior
Primera A
- D1-1away to Chico28 October 2026
- W1-0Águilas Doradas24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportivo Cali19 October 2026
- D1-1Deportivo Pereira14 October 2026
- D2-2Internacional de Bogota10 October 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Pasto failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Pasto failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Junior went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Junior failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Junior scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 | Junior | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pasto vs Junior
- 3 May 2026Junior 4–3 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 29 September 2025Junior 2–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 12 April 2025Deportivo Pasto 3–3 JuniorPrimera A
- 29 August 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–0 JuniorPrimera A
- 8 February 2024Junior 2–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 13 August 2023Junior 0–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Pasto and Junior
Deportivo Pasto
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Junior
GoalsAssists
- L. Muriel162
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Deportivo Pasto carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.53 for Junior. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 1.24 for Junior. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Pasto rate 0.55 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Junior rate 0.76 and 1.45.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,464 correct results out of 5,119 settled predictions (48%), with 510 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Junior the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Deportivo Pasto against 1.24 for Junior. Deportivo Pasto's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.45 for Junior.
How the model reaches 37% for Junior to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Junior to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Deportivo Pasto's ratings add 5 points and Junior's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage27%−8
- Deportivo Pasto's ratings32%+5
- Junior's ratings37%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Pasto at home · Junior away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Deportivo Pasto 35, Junior 40.
Deportivo Pasto score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Junior have let in 12 there.
Junior score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Deportivo Pasto have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.