Llaneros
vs
Junior
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Llaneros 1–0 Junior
The model makes it 38% Llaneros, 29% draw, 33% Junior — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Llaneros 1.30, Junior 1.18.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Llaneros are 12th on 14 points from 13 games; Junior are 16th on 11 points from 13 games — Primera A.
- Llaneros are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Once Caldas.
- Junior are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Deportivo Pereira.
- Last 3 meetings: Junior 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Junior 2–0 Llaneros.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Llaneros vs Junior
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Llaneros at 38% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Llaneros vs Junior
Llaneros
- L0-1away to Once Caldas10 October 2026
- L1-2America de Cali5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Cucuta26 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico Nacional21 September 2026
- L2-3away to Internacional de Bogota12 September 2026
Junior
- D1-1Deportivo Pereira14 October 2026
- D2-2Internacional de Bogota10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Bucaramanga4 October 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Nacional1 October 2026
- W2-0Independiente Medellin27 September 2026
What these results say
- Llaneros failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Llaneros scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Llaneros conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Junior scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Junior failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Junior conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
| 16 | Junior | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Llaneros vs Junior
- 19 April 2026Junior 2–0 LlanerosPrimera A
- 29 August 2025Junior 4–0 LlanerosPrimera A
- 17 March 2025Llaneros 0–1 JuniorPrimera A
Leading scorers: Llaneros and Junior
Llaneros
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Junior
GoalsAssists
- L. Muriel162
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Llaneros carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.53 for Junior. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Llaneros and 1.18 for Junior. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Llaneros rate 0.58 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Junior rate 0.80 and 1.54.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Llaneros the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Llaneros against 1.18 for Junior. Llaneros's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.54 for Junior.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Llaneros at home · Junior away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Llaneros 32, Junior 38.
Llaneros score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Junior have let in 11 there.
Junior score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Llaneros have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Llaneros
- at Alianza Valledupar9 Nov · Primera Awin 32%
- vs Chico12 Nov · Primera Awin 51%
Junior
- vs Cucuta8 Nov · Primera Awin 56%
- at Deportivo Pasto12 Nov · Primera Awin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.