Internacional de Bogota
vs
Santa Fe
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Internacional de Bogota 0–1 Santa Fe
The model makes it 33% Internacional de Bogota, 29% draw, 38% Santa Fe — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Internacional de Bogota 1.20, Santa Fe 1.35.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,071 settled matches.
Edge to Santa Fe: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 29 October 2026. Internacional de Bogota's rating is built from 78 Colombian Primera A matches and Santa Fe's from 92, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,243 matches.
Key facts
- Internacional de Bogota are 12th on 20 points from 17 games; Santa Fe are 4th on 28 points from 15 games — Primera A.
- Internacional de Bogota have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Independiente Medellin.
- Santa Fe have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Bucaramanga.
- Last 6 meetings: Santa Fe 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Santa Fe 3–1 Internacional de Bogota.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Internacional de Bogota vs Santa Fe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santa Fe at 38% here. Across 5,105 settled matches (as of 29 October 2026), 3,897 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Internacional de Bogota vs Santa Fe
Internacional de Bogota
Primera A
- W3-1Independiente Medellin29 October 2026
- L0-1away to Alianza Valledupar25 October 2026
- W2-1Fortaleza FC20 October 2026
- D2-2away to Junior10 October 2026
- D1-1Once Caldas4 October 2026
Santa Fe
Primera A
- W2-1Bucaramanga27 October 2026
- W2-1Jaguares22 October 2026
- L0-1away to Llaneros18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Independiente Medellin6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Pereira29 September 2026
What these results say
- Internacional de Bogota conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Internacional de Bogota scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Internacional de Bogota.
- Santa Fe won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santa Fe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santa Fe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 20 |
| 4 | Santa Fe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Internacional de Bogota vs Santa Fe
- 3 May 2026Santa Fe 3–1 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 28 September 2025Santa Fe 3–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 11 April 2025Internacional de Bogota 2–1 Santa FePrimera A
- 27 July 2024Santa Fe 0–1 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 26 May 2024Santa Fe 2–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 12 May 2024Internacional de Bogota 0–2 Santa FePrimera A
Leading scorers: Internacional de Bogota and Santa Fe
Internacional de Bogota
GoalsAssists
- F. Sanguinetti97
Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- H. Rodallega143
- N. Bustos115
- F. Fagúndez95
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Internacional de Bogota carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.63 for Santa Fe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Internacional de Bogota and 1.35 for Santa Fe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Internacional de Bogota rate 0.68 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santa Fe rate 0.78 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Internacional de Bogota a 0% chance of the title and Santa Fe 2.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,464 correct results out of 5,119 settled predictions (48%), with 510 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santa Fe the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Internacional de Bogota against 1.35 for Santa Fe. Internacional de Bogota's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.22 for Santa Fe.
How the model reaches 38% for Santa Fe to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Santa Fe to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Internacional de Bogota's ratings add 6 points and Santa Fe's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage27%−8
- Internacional de Bogota's ratings33%+6
- Santa Fe's ratings38%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Internacional de Bogota at home · Santa Fe away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Internacional de Bogota 36, Santa Fe 37.
Internacional de Bogota score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Santa Fe have let in 10 there.
Santa Fe score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Internacional de Bogota have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.