Llaneros
vs
Chico
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Llaneros 1–0 Chico
The model makes it 49% Llaneros, 30% draw, 21% Chico — fair odds of 2.04, 3.33 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Llaneros 1.40, Chico 0.72.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,360 settled matches.
Edge to Llaneros: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 29 October 2026. Llaneros's rating is built from 75 Colombian Primera A matches and Chico's from 75, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,243 matches.
Key facts
- Llaneros are 14th on 17 points from 16 games; Chico are 16th on 16 points from 16 games — Primera A.
- Llaneros have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Jaguares.
- Chico have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Junior.
- Last 6 meetings: Llaneros 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 May 2026, ended Chico 0–1 Llaneros.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Llaneros vs Chico
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Llaneros at 49% here. Across 5,105 settled matches (as of 29 October 2026), 2,359 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Llaneros vs Chico
Llaneros
Primera A
- L0-1away to Jaguares26 October 2026
- L0-3Deportivo Cali21 October 2026
- W1-0Santa Fe18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Once Caldas10 October 2026
- L1-2America de Cali5 October 2026
Chico
Primera A
- D1-1Junior28 October 2026
- W1-0Bucaramanga23 October 2026
- L0-2away to Deportivo Pereira20 October 2026
- L1-4Atletico Nacional17 October 2026
- L0-1Cucuta11 October 2026
What these results say
- Llaneros failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Llaneros conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chico failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chico conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chico had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Llaneros | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 17 |
| 16 | Chico | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Llaneros vs Chico
- 27 May 2026Chico 0–1 LlanerosCopa Colombia
- 2 May 2026Chico 3–0 LlanerosPrimera A
- 23 July 2025Llaneros 2–1 ChicoPrimera A
- 8 February 2025Chico 2–2 LlanerosPrimera A
- 2 November 2022Chico 3–0 LlanerosPrimera B
- 18 October 2022Llaneros 1–0 ChicoPrimera B
The two sides
Llaneros carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.19 for Chico. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Llaneros and 0.72 for Chico. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Llaneros rate 0.54 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chico rate 0.48 and 1.79.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,464 correct results out of 5,119 settled predictions (48%), with 510 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Llaneros the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Llaneros against 0.72 for Chico. Llaneros's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.79 for Chico.
How the model reaches 49% for Llaneros to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Llaneros to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Llaneros's ratings add 3 points and Chico's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Llaneros's ratings45%+3
- Chico's ratings49%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Llaneros at home · Chico away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Llaneros 35, Chico 34.
Llaneros score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Chico have let in 10 there.
Chico score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Llaneros have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.