Middlesbrough
vs
Swansea
Championship prediction
Our model says: Middlesbrough 1–0 Swansea
The model makes it 49% Middlesbrough, 27% draw, 24% Swansea — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Middlesbrough 1.67, Swansea 1.01.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Edge to Middlesbrough: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Middlesbrough's rating is built from 64 Championship matches and Swansea's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Middlesbrough are 2nd on 29 points from 15 games; Swansea are 6th on 26 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Middlesbrough have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Watford.
- Swansea have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Birmingham.
- Last 6 meetings: Middlesbrough 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Swansea 2–2 Middlesbrough.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Middlesbrough vs Swansea
Has the model earned this number?
Middlesbrough at 49%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Middlesbrough vs Swansea
Middlesbrough
Championship
- D0-0away to Watford7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Wrexham4 November 2026
- W3-0Charlton31 October 2026
- W5-1away to Bolton23 October 2026
- D2-2Cardiff17 October 2026
Swansea
Championship
- L1-2away to Birmingham7 November 2026
- L1-3away to Portsmouth3 November 2026
- W4-0Blackburn31 October 2026
- L0-5away to QPR24 October 2026
- L0-1West Ham17 October 2026
What these results say
- Swansea failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swansea conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Swansea had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 29 |
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Middlesbrough
Chance to finish in the top two · 36% today
Swansea
Chance to finish in the top two · 5% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Middlesbrough vs Swansea
Middlesbrough and Swansea have met 6 times in the records we hold, Middlesbrough has won 4 of them to Swansea's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at Swansea on 6 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| Swansea | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 6 Apr 2026
ChampionshipSwansea 2–2 Middlesbrough - 9 Aug 2025
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 1–0 Swansea - 8 Mar 2025
ChampionshipSwansea 1–0 Middlesbrough - 10 Aug 2024
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 1–0 Swansea - 6 Apr 2024
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 2–0 Swansea - 16 Dec 2023
ChampionshipSwansea 1–2 Middlesbrough
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Middlesbrough's attack rates 20% above Swansea's, and Middlesbrough concede 7% fewer than Swansea. That gives Middlesbrough the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 0.89 | 1.14 |
| Swansea | 0.74 | 1.23 |
Leading scorers: Middlesbrough and Swansea
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear130
Swansea
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Middlesbrough a 21.2% chance of the title and Swansea 1.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Middlesbrough the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Middlesbrough against 1.01 for Swansea. Middlesbrough's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.23 for Swansea.
How the model reaches 49% for Middlesbrough to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Middlesbrough to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Middlesbrough's ratings add 4 points and Swansea's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Middlesbrough's ratings46%+4
- Swansea's ratings49%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Middlesbrough at home · Swansea away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
MiddlesbroughSwansea
Middlesbrough are 2nd after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 10th so far); Swansea are 6th after 15 (between 1st and 6th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Middlesbrough 15, Swansea 15.
Swansea score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Middlesbrough have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Middlesbrough
- at Southampton27 Nov · Championshipwin 27%
- vs Derby5 Dec · Championshipwin 61%
- at West Ham8 Dec · Championshipwin 32%
- at Preston12 Dec · Championshipwin 52%
Swansea
- vs Cardiff29 Nov · Championshipwin 47%
- at Bristol City5 Dec · Championshipwin 38%
- vs Bolton8 Dec · Championshipwin 53%
- at Charlton12 Dec · Championshipwin 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.