Meshakhte
vs
Dinamo Tbilisi
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Meshakhte 0–1 Dinamo Tbilisi
The model makes it 18% Meshakhte, 27% draw, 55% Dinamo Tbilisi — fair odds of 5.56, 3.70 and 1.82.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Meshakhte 0.75, Dinamo Tbilisi 1.67.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Dinamo Tbilisi are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Meshakhte's rating is built from 34 Erovnuli Liga matches and Dinamo Tbilisi's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 528 matches.
Key facts
- Meshakhte are bottom on 20 points from 32 games; Dinamo Tbilisi are 3rd on 58 points from 32 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Meshakhte have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Torpedo Kutaisi.
- Dinamo Tbilisi are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Dila.
- Last 3 meetings: Dinamo Tbilisi 1 win to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 September 2026, ended Dinamo Tbilisi 0–0 Meshakhte.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Meshakhte vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Has the model earned this number?
Dinamo Tbilisi at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Meshakhte vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Meshakhte
Erovnuli Liga
- L2-3Torpedo Kutaisi7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Batumi1 November 2026
- W2-1Dila24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Samgurali17 October 2026
- L1-2FC Iberia 199910 October 2026
Dinamo Tbilisi
Erovnuli Liga
- W2-0away to Dila8 November 2026
- D0-0FC Iberia 199931 October 2026
- W2-0away to Rustavi23 October 2026
- W3-1Spaeri18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Batumi11 October 2026
What these results say
- Meshakhte conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Meshakhte failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dinamo Tbilisi had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Meshakhte | 32 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 25 | 53 | -28 | 20 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 32 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 52 | 32 | +20 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dinamo Tbilisi
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 41% today
From our Erovnuli Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Meshakhte vs Dinamo Tbilisi
- 10 September 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 0–0 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga
- 30 May 2026Meshakhte 1–6 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
- 17 April 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 1–1 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: Meshakhte and Dinamo Tbilisi
Meshakhte
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Dinamo Tbilisi
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo Silva Ramos22
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Meshakhte a 0% chance of the title and Dinamo Tbilisi 40.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Tbilisi the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Meshakhte against 1.67 for Dinamo Tbilisi. Meshakhte's attack/defence rating is 0.35/2.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.44 for Dinamo Tbilisi.
How the model reaches 55% for Dinamo Tbilisi to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dinamo Tbilisi to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Meshakhte's ratings add 11 points and Dinamo Tbilisi's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Both sides at this match's level31%−1
- Meshakhte's ratings42%+11
- Dinamo Tbilisi's ratings55%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Meshakhte at home · Dinamo Tbilisi away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Meshakhte 32, Dinamo Tbilisi 32.
Meshakhte score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Dinamo Tbilisi have let in 5 there.
Dinamo Tbilisi score most often in the 61–75 minute window (13 goals); Meshakhte have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Meshakhte
- vs Gagra5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 36%
Dinamo Tbilisi
- vs Samgurali5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 60%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.