SC Freiburg
vs
RB Leipzig
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: SC Freiburg 2–1 RB Leipzig
The model makes it 38% SC Freiburg, 24% draw, 38% RB Leipzig — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: SC Freiburg 1.86, RB Leipzig 1.88.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. SC Freiburg's rating is built from 43 Bundesliga matches and RB Leipzig's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- SC Freiburg are 3rd on 19 points from 9 games; RB Leipzig are 4th on 18 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- SC Freiburg have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Union Berlin.
- RB Leipzig are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 5-2 win at home to FC Augsburg.
- Last 6 meetings: RB Leipzig 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended SC Freiburg 4–1 RB Leipzig.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig
Has the model earned this number?
SC Freiburg at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig
SC Freiburg
Bundesliga
- W2-0Union Berlin8 November 2026
- W2-1away to FC Augsburg31 October 2026
- L1-3Bayern München25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Bayer Leverkusen18 October 2026
- W2-1FC Schalke 0411 October 2026
RB Leipzig
Bundesliga
- W5-2FC Augsburg7 November 2026
- W2-0away to FC Schalke 0431 October 2026
- W4-0SV Elversberg24 October 2026
- L1-6away to Bayern München17 October 2026
- W6-0Eintracht Frankfurt10 October 2026
What these results say
- SC Freiburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- SC Freiburg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SC Freiburg had three goals or more.
- RB Leipzig scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- RB Leipzig won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for RB Leipzig had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig
- 16 May 2026SC Freiburg 4–1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 14 January 2026RB Leipzig 2–0 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 8 March 2025SC Freiburg 0–0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 26 October 2024RB Leipzig 3–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 6 April 2024SC Freiburg 1–4 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 12 November 2023RB Leipzig 3–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig
SC Freiburg
GoalsAssists
- Y. Suzuki50
- I. Matanović41
RB Leipzig
GoalsAssists
- C. Nkunku52
- Rômulo50
- A. Nusa47
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SC Freiburg a 2.3% chance of the title and RB Leipzig 5.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Freiburg the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for SC Freiburg against 1.88 for RB Leipzig. SC Freiburg's attack/defence rating is 1.19/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.47/0.85 for RB Leipzig.
How the model reaches 38% for SC Freiburg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for SC Freiburg to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, SC Freiburg's ratings take away 3 points and RB Leipzig's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- SC Freiburg's ratings40%−3
- RB Leipzig's ratings38%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
SC Freiburg at home · RB Leipzig away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SC FreiburgRB Leipzig
SC Freiburg are 3rd after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); RB Leipzig are 4th after 9 (between 2nd and 8th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: SC Freiburg 9, RB Leipzig 9.
SC Freiburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); RB Leipzig have let in 1 there.
RB Leipzig score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); SC Freiburg have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
SC Freiburg
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim5 Dec · Bundesligawin 56%
- vs Panathinaikos10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 43%
- at FSV Mainz 0513 Dec · Bundesligawin 46%
RB Leipzig
- vs FSV Mainz 055 Dec · Bundesligawin 66%
- at Manchester United8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 38%
- at 1. FC Köln12 Dec · Bundesligawin 60%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.