Regular Season - 29 · 29 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Union La Calera vs Universidad de Concepcion Primera División prediction

Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, La Calera

Our model says: Union La Calera 1–0 Universidad de Concepcion

The model makes it 50% Union La Calera, 28% draw, 22% Universidad de Concepcion — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Union La Calera 1.56, Universidad de Concepcion 0.84.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Edge to Union La Calera: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Union La Calera's rating is built from 55 Chilean Primera División matches and Universidad de Concepcion's from 27, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 693 matches.

Key facts

  • Union La Calera are bottom on 24 points from 27 games; Universidad de Concepcion are 15th on 26 points from 27 games — Primera División.
  • Union La Calera have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Huachipato.
  • Universidad de Concepcion have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to O'Higgins.
  • Last 5 meetings: Universidad de Concepcion 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Universidad de Concepcion 0–0 Union La Calera.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Union La Calera vs Universidad de Concepcion

45%
Both teams to score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Union La Calera win Draw Universidad de Concepcion win
  1. 1–014%
  2. 1–112%
  3. 2–011%
  4. 0–010%
  5. 2–19%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 3–06%

Scores read Union La Calera first; the other scorelines share the remaining 31%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Union La Calera at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Union La Calera vs Universidad de Concepcion

Union La Calera

Primera División

  • W1-0Huachipato8 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Coquimbo Unido30 October 2026
  • W3-1Universidad Catolica25 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Concepción11 October 2026
  • W1-0Deportes Limache14 September 2026

Universidad de Concepcion

Primera División

  • W3-2O'Higgins8 November 2026
  • L1-6away to Colo Colo30 October 2026
  • L0-1Deportes Limache25 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Cobresal10 October 2026
  • L0-2Huachipato2 October 2026

What these results say

  • Union La Calera scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Union La Calera had two goals or fewer.
  • Universidad de Concepcion conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Universidad de Concepcion failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Union La Calera2766152443-1924
15Universidad de Concepcion2775152249-2726

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Union La Calera vs Universidad de Concepcion

  • 30 May 2026Universidad de Concepcion 0–0 Union La CaleraPrimera División
  • 11 January 2021Union La Calera 1–2 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
  • 8 September 2020Universidad de Concepcion 2–1 Union La CaleraPrimera División
  • 29 March 2019Union La Calera 3–1 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
  • 1 September 2018Universidad de Concepcion 2–1 Union La CaleraPrimera División

Leading scorers: Union La Calera and Universidad de Concepcion

Union La Calera

GoalsAssists

  • S. Sáez91

Universidad de Concepcion

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Universidad de Concepcion (15th, with Union La Calera 16th), while our numbers lean to Union La Calera. Union La Calera rate 0.49 in attack and 1.47 in defence, Universidad de Concepcion 0.46 and 1.90 (lower is better in defence), so Union La Calera have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Union La Calera Universidad de Concepcion
0.49 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.46
1.47 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.9
1.56 Model expected goals (this match) 0.84

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Union La Calera the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Union La Calera against 0.84 for Universidad de Concepcion. Union La Calera's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.9 for Universidad de Concepcion.

Union La Calera carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.14 for Universidad de Concepcion.

How the model reaches 50% for Union La Calera to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Union La Calera to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Union La Calera's ratings add 4 points and Universidad de Concepcion's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 50%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage45%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−3
  4. Union La Calera's ratings46%+4
  5. Universidad de Concepcion's ratings50%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Union La CaleraUniversidad de Concepcion
25Matches27
6W 6D 13LRecord7W 5D 15L
24 1.0 per gameGoals scored22 0.8 per game
37 1.5 per gameGoals conceded49 1.8 per game
6 of 25Clean sheets5 of 27
9 of 25Failed to score10 of 27
3 of 3Penalties scored2 of 2
61 2.4 per gameYellow cards88 3.3 per game
3Red cards7
4-2-3-1 9×Usual shape4-1-4-1 7×

Union La Calera at home · Universidad de Concepcion away

13Played14
5W 3D 5LRecord1W 4D 9L
18–15Goals for – against11–34
4 of 13Clean sheets1 of 14

League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Primera División matches this season: Union La Calera 25, Universidad de Concepcion 27.

Union La Calera scored 232614
Universidad de Concepcion conceded 7117766

Union La Calera score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Universidad de Concepcion have let in 7 there.

Universidad de Concepcion scored 336333
Union La Calera conceded 449752

Universidad de Concepcion score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Union La Calera have let in 9 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Union La Calera

  • at Universidad de Chile6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 13%

Universidad de Concepcion

  • vs Universidad Catolica6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 23%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.