IF Elfsborg
vs
Orgryte IS
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: IF Elfsborg 2–0 Orgryte IS
The model makes it 63% IF Elfsborg, 21% draw, 16% Orgryte IS — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: IF Elfsborg 2.29, Orgryte IS 0.90.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: IF Elfsborg are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- IF Elfsborg are 4th on 40 points from 23 games; Orgryte IS are 15th on 15 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
- IF Elfsborg are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Halmstad.
- Orgryte IS have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to BK Hacken.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 May 2026, ended Orgryte IS 2–2 IF Elfsborg.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts IF Elfsborg at 63% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS
IF Elfsborg
- W4-0Halmstad12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Djurgardens IF20 September 2026
- W1-0Kalmar FF13 September 2026
- L1-2away to IF Brommapojkarna6 September 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF29 August 2026
Orgryte IS
- L0-3away to BK Hacken11 October 2026
- L1-2Sirius19 September 2026
- L1-4away to Malmo FF13 September 2026
- D1-1Hammarby FF6 September 2026
- L0-1away to IFK Goteborg30 August 2026
What these results say
- IF Elfsborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- IF Elfsborg won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | IF Elfsborg | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 22 | +13 | 40 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 23 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 52 | -27 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS
- 29 May 2026Orgryte IS 2–2 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 16 February 2025IF Elfsborg 3–1 Orgryte ISSvenska Cupen
- 24 February 2024Orgryte IS 3–2 IF ElfsborgSvenska Cupen
Leading scorers: IF Elfsborg and Orgryte IS
IF Elfsborg
GoalsAssists
- L. Ãstman82
Orgryte IS
GoalsAssists
- N. Christoffersson81
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
IF Elfsborg carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.16 for Orgryte IS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.29 goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.90 for Orgryte IS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IF Elfsborg rate 0.68 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Orgryte IS rate 0.52 and 2.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives IF Elfsborg a 0.1% chance of the title and Orgryte IS 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IF Elfsborg the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.29 expected goals for IF Elfsborg against 0.90 for Orgryte IS. IF Elfsborg's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/2.07 for Orgryte IS.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
IF Elfsborg at home · Orgryte IS away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: IF Elfsborg 23, Orgryte IS 23.
IF Elfsborg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Orgryte IS have let in 10 there.
Orgryte IS score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); IF Elfsborg have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
IF Elfsborg
- at Hammarby FF6 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 24%
- at BK Hacken22 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 33%
Orgryte IS
- vs Vasteras SK FK7 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 27%
- vs Kalmar FF23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.