Djurgardens IF
vs
Degerfors IF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Djurgardens IF 2–0 Degerfors IF
The model makes it 67% Djurgardens IF, 21% draw, 12% Degerfors IF — fair odds of 1.49, 4.76 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Djurgardens IF 2.16, Degerfors IF 0.62.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Djurgardens IF are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Djurgardens IF are 2nd on 47 points from 24 games; Degerfors IF are 13th on 20 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
- Djurgardens IF have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to IF Brommapojkarna.
- Degerfors IF are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Mjallby AIF.
- Last 6 meetings: Djurgardens IF 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended Degerfors IF 0–1 Djurgardens IF.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Djurgardens IF at 67% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF
Djurgardens IF
- W2-0away to IF Brommapojkarna16 October 2026
- W1-0away to Hammarby FF11 October 2026
- L1-2IF Elfsborg20 September 2026
- W2-0Gais14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Kalmar FF7 September 2026
Degerfors IF
- D1-1away to Mjallby AIF10 October 2026
- L0-1Hammarby FF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sirius14 September 2026
- W2-0Halmstad5 September 2026
- L0-2away to IF Elfsborg29 August 2026
What these results say
- Djurgardens IF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Djurgardens IF won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Djurgardens IF kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Degerfors IF had two goals or fewer.
- Degerfors IF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Degerfors IF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Djurgardens IF | 24 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 50 | 21 | +29 | 47 |
| 13 | Degerfors IF | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF
- 25 July 2026Degerfors IF 0–1 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
- 21 March 2026Djurgardens IF 2–1 Degerfors IFFriendlies Clubs
- 4 October 2025Degerfors IF 1–1 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
- 6 July 2025Djurgardens IF 5–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 10 March 2024Djurgardens IF 3–0 Degerfors IFSvenska Cupen
- 27 August 2023Djurgardens IF 4–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF
Djurgardens IF
GoalsAssists
- K. Lien166
- Bo Åsulv Hegland914
- C. Rosenquist71
Degerfors IF
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Djurgardens IF carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.25 for Degerfors IF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.16 goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.62 for Degerfors IF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Djurgardens IF rate 0.86 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Degerfors IF rate 0.45 and 1.54.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Djurgardens IF a 12.6% chance of the title and Degerfors IF 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Djurgardens IF the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Djurgardens IF against 0.62 for Degerfors IF. Djurgardens IF's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.54 for Degerfors IF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Djurgardens IF at home · Degerfors IF away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Djurgardens IF 24, Degerfors IF 23.
Djurgardens IF score most often in the 0–15 minute window (12 goals); Degerfors IF have let in 6 there.
Degerfors IF score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Djurgardens IF have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Djurgardens IF
- at Halmstad8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 68%
- at Sirius22 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 43%
- vs BK Hacken29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 56%
Degerfors IF
- vs Gais7 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 25%
- at AIK Stockholm21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.