Vasteras SK FK
vs
Mjallby AIF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Vasteras SK FK 2–1 Mjallby AIF
The model makes it 45% Vasteras SK FK, 27% draw, 28% Mjallby AIF — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Vasteras SK FK 1.87, Mjallby AIF 1.24.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Vasteras SK FK are 6th on 35 points from 22 games; Mjallby AIF are 12th on 22 points from 22 games — Allsvenskan.
- Vasteras SK FK have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Malmo FF.
- Mjallby AIF have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Gais.
- Last 6 meetings: Mjallby AIF 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 July 2026, ended Mjallby AIF 0–0 Vasteras SK FK.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasteras SK FK at 45% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF
Vasteras SK FK
- W2-0Malmo FF19 September 2026
- W4-1away to AIK Stockholm12 September 2026
- L0-1Sirius5 September 2026
- W3-1away to BK Hacken29 August 2026
- D0-0Kalmar FF23 August 2026
Mjallby AIF
- L0-3Gais20 September 2026
- D1-1away to AIK Stockholm16 September 2026
- D1-1away to BK Hacken11 September 2026
- L1-4IFK Goteborg7 September 2026
- L0-2Djurgardens IF3 September 2026
What these results say
- Mjallby AIF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 35 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF
- 17 July 2026Mjallby AIF 0–0 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
- 5 October 2024Mjallby AIF 2–1 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
- 25 April 2024Vasteras SK FK 2–1 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 25 February 2024Mjallby AIF 2–0 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen
- 19 October 2019Vasteras SK FK 2–2 Mjallby AIFSuperettan
- 13 April 2019Mjallby AIF 2–1 Vasteras SK FKSuperettan
Leading scorers: Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF
Vasteras SK FK
- M. Ladefoged9 goals2 assists
- A. Taonsa8 goals
Mjallby AIF
- J. Bergström9 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vasteras SK FK carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.32 for Mjallby AIF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.24 for Mjallby AIF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vasteras SK FK rate 0.68 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mjallby AIF rate 0.59 and 1.69.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasteras SK FK the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK against 1.24 for Mjallby AIF. Vasteras SK FK's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.69 for Mjallby AIF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vasteras SK FK at home · Mjallby AIF away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Vasteras SK FK 22, Mjallby AIF 22.
Vasteras SK FK score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Mjallby AIF have let in 11 there.
Mjallby AIF score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Vasteras SK FK have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Vasteras SK FK
- vs Halmstad23 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 52%
- at Degerfors IF28 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 40%
- vs IF Brommapojkarna1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 44%
- at Orgryte IS7 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 44%
Mjallby AIF
- at FC Iberia 199922 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%
- vs Hammarby FF25 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 24%
- at Orgryte IS29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.