Sirius
vs
IF Elfsborg
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Sirius 2–1 IF Elfsborg
The model makes it 43% Sirius, 27% draw, 30% IF Elfsborg — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sirius 1.85, IF Elfsborg 1.33.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Sirius are top on 51 points from 22 games; IF Elfsborg are 4th on 37 points from 22 games — Allsvenskan.
- Sirius are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-1 win away to Orgryte IS.
- IF Elfsborg have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to Djurgardens IF.
- Last 6 meetings: Sirius 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 July 2026, ended IF Elfsborg 1–3 Sirius.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sirius vs IF Elfsborg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sirius at 43% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sirius vs IF Elfsborg
Sirius
- W2-1away to Orgryte IS19 September 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Vasteras SK FK5 September 2026
- L0-1Malmo FF31 August 2026
- L0-3BK Hacken21 August 2026
IF Elfsborg
- W2-1away to Djurgardens IF20 September 2026
- W1-0Kalmar FF13 September 2026
- L1-2away to IF Brommapojkarna6 September 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF29 August 2026
- D1-1away to IFK Goteborg23 August 2026
What these results say
- IF Elfsborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 52 | 28 | +24 | 51 |
| 4 | IF Elfsborg | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sirius vs IF Elfsborg
- 19 July 2026IF Elfsborg 1–3 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 8 March 2026IF Elfsborg 1–2 SiriusSvenska Cupen
- 26 October 2025Sirius 4–0 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 23 April 2025IF Elfsborg 4–3 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 6 October 2024Sirius 4–1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 29 April 2024IF Elfsborg 2–0 SiriusAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Sirius and IF Elfsborg
Sirius
- R. Ure15 goals2 assists
- I. Bjerkebo13 goals6 assists
IF Elfsborg
- L. Ãstman6 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sirius carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.5 for IF Elfsborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for Sirius and 1.33 for IF Elfsborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sirius rate 0.88 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; IF Elfsborg rate 0.63 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sirius a 74.2% chance of the title and IF Elfsborg 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sirius the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Sirius against 1.33 for IF Elfsborg. Sirius's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.29 for IF Elfsborg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sirius at home · IF Elfsborg away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Sirius 22, IF Elfsborg 22.
Sirius score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); IF Elfsborg have let in 1 there.
IF Elfsborg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Sirius have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sirius
- vs AIK Stockholm24 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 49%
- at Hammarby FF29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 27%
- vs Halmstad3 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 60%
- at Kalmar FF8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 49%
IF Elfsborg
- vs Malmo FF23 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 39%
- at AIK Stockholm27 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 36%
- vs Orgryte IS1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 52%
- at Hammarby FF6 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.