Orgryte IS
vs
Gais
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Orgryte IS 0–1 Gais
The model makes it 25% Orgryte IS, 29% draw, 46% Gais — fair odds of 4.00, 3.45 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Orgryte IS 0.95, Gais 1.71.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Orgryte IS are 15th on 15 points from 22 games; Gais are 10th on 30 points from 22 games — Allsvenskan.
- Orgryte IS have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Sirius.
- Gais have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win away to Mjallby AIF.
- Last 6 meetings: Gais 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Gais 4–0 Orgryte IS.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Orgryte IS vs Gais
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gais at 46% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Orgryte IS vs Gais
Orgryte IS
- L1-2Sirius19 September 2026
- L1-4away to Malmo FF13 September 2026
- D1-1Hammarby FF6 September 2026
- L0-1away to IFK Goteborg30 August 2026
- D1-1Halmstad22 August 2026
Gais
- W3-0away to Mjallby AIF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Djurgardens IF14 September 2026
- D0-0BK Hacken5 September 2026
- W4-0IF Brommapojkarna31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Hammarby FF23 August 2026
What these results say
- Orgryte IS did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 15 |
| 10 | Gais | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 20 | +8 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Orgryte IS vs Gais
- 3 May 2026Gais 4–0 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
- 3 March 2024Gais 3–0 Orgryte ISSvenska Cupen
- 28 September 2023Orgryte IS 1–4 GaisSuperettan
- 1 June 2023Gais 0–1 Orgryte ISSuperettan
- 29 September 2021Gais 2–1 Orgryte ISSuperettan
- 3 August 2021Orgryte IS 1–0 GaisSuperettan
Leading scorers: Orgryte IS and Gais
Orgryte IS
- N. Christoffersson8 goals1 assist
Gais
- S. Salter6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Orgryte IS carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.59 for Gais. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.95 goals for Orgryte IS and 1.71 for Gais. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orgryte IS rate 0.55 in attack and 2.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gais rate 0.60 and 1.06.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gais the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Orgryte IS against 1.71 for Gais. Orgryte IS's attack/defence rating is 0.55/2.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.06 for Gais.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Orgryte IS at home · Gais away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Orgryte IS 22, Gais 22.
Gais score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Orgryte IS have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Orgryte IS
- at Djurgardens IF24 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 15%
- vs Mjallby AIF29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 34%
- at IF Elfsborg1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 22%
- vs Vasteras SK FK7 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 29%
Gais
- vs IFK Goteborg25 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 47%
- at Kalmar FF29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 45%
- vs AIK Stockholm2 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 44%
- at Degerfors IF7 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.