Halmstad
vs
Hammarby FF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Halmstad 0–2 Hammarby FF
The model makes it 18% Halmstad, 25% draw, 57% Hammarby FF — fair odds of 5.56, 4.00 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (13%).
Expected goals: Halmstad 0.72, Hammarby FF 2.19.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Halmstad are bottom on 14 points from 22 games; Hammarby FF are 2nd on 43 points from 22 games — Allsvenskan.
- Halmstad have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to AIK Stockholm.
- Hammarby FF are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-0 win away to Degerfors IF.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 April 2026, ended Hammarby FF 1–1 Halmstad.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Halmstad vs Hammarby FF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hammarby FF at 57% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Halmstad vs Hammarby FF
Halmstad
- W2-1AIK Stockholm20 September 2026
- L1-2away to IFK Goteborg12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Degerfors IF5 September 2026
- W1-0Kalmar FF29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Orgryte IS22 August 2026
Hammarby FF
- W1-0away to Degerfors IF20 September 2026
- W3-1IF Brommapojkarna13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Orgryte IS6 September 2026
- L2-3away to AIK Stockholm30 August 2026
- W2-0Gais23 August 2026
What these results say
- Halmstad scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Halmstad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hammarby FF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Halmstad | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 40 | -24 | 14 |
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 20 | +29 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Halmstad vs Hammarby FF
- 22 April 2026Hammarby FF 1–1 HalmstadAllsvenskan
- 28 September 2025Halmstad 1–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 28 June 2025Hammarby FF 2–0 HalmstadAllsvenskan
- 5 October 2024Hammarby FF 1–0 HalmstadAllsvenskan
- 25 April 2024Halmstad 2–1 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 12 November 2023Hammarby FF 2–2 HalmstadAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Halmstad and Hammarby FF
Halmstad
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Hammarby FF
- P. Abraham14 goals3 assists
- V. Lind9 goals11 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Halmstad carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.73 for Hammarby FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.72 goals for Halmstad and 2.19 for Hammarby FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Halmstad rate 0.39 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hammarby FF rate 0.89 and 1.14.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Halmstad a 0% chance of the title and Hammarby FF 15.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hammarby FF the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Halmstad against 2.19 for Hammarby FF. Halmstad's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.14 for Hammarby FF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Halmstad at home · Hammarby FF away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Halmstad 22, Hammarby FF 22.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Halmstad
- at Vasteras SK FK23 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 21%
- vs Malmo FF28 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 25%
- at Sirius3 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 17%
- vs Djurgardens IF8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 18%
Hammarby FF
- at Mjallby AIF25 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 50%
- vs Sirius29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 47%
- at Malmo FF1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 44%
- vs IF Elfsborg6 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.