Malmo FF
vs
BK Hacken
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Malmo FF 2–1 BK Hacken
The model makes it 38% Malmo FF, 28% draw, 34% BK Hacken — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Malmo FF 1.69, BK Hacken 1.51.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Malmo FF are 7th on 33 points from 22 games; BK Hacken are 5th on 36 points from 22 games — Allsvenskan.
- Malmo FF have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Vasteras SK FK.
- BK Hacken are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 5-0 win away to Kalmar FF.
- Last 6 meetings: Malmo FF 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended BK Hacken 3–2 Malmo FF.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Malmo FF vs BK Hacken
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Malmo FF at 38% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Malmo FF vs BK Hacken
Malmo FF
- L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK19 September 2026
- W4-1Orgryte IS13 September 2026
- D0-0AIK Stockholm7 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sirius31 August 2026
- L0-3Djurgardens IF24 August 2026
BK Hacken
- W5-0away to Kalmar FF20 September 2026
- D1-1Mjallby AIF11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gais5 September 2026
- L1-3Vasteras SK FK29 August 2026
- W3-0away to Sirius21 August 2026
What these results say
- BK Hacken scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Malmo FF | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 33 |
| 5 | BK Hacken | 22 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 39 | 30 | +9 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Malmo FF vs BK Hacken
- 10 May 2026BK Hacken 3–2 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 1 November 2025BK Hacken 1–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 1 June 2025Malmo FF 3–0 BK HackenAllsvenskan
- 29 May 2025Malmo FF 0–0 BK HackenSvenska Cupen
- 22 September 2024Malmo FF 4–0 BK HackenAllsvenskan
- 20 May 2024BK Hacken 2–2 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Malmo FF and BK Hacken
Malmo FF
- E. Botheim10 goals3 assists
BK Hacken
- G. Lindgren12 goals
- Julius Lindberg7 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Malmo FF carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.5 for BK Hacken. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Malmo FF and 1.51 for BK Hacken. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Malmo FF rate 0.70 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; BK Hacken rate 0.73 and 1.48.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour BK Hacken, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Malmo FF the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Malmo FF against 1.51 for BK Hacken. Malmo FF's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.48 for BK Hacken.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Malmo FF at home · BK Hacken away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Malmo FF 22, BK Hacken 22.
Malmo FF score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); BK Hacken have let in 3 there.
BK Hacken score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Malmo FF have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Malmo FF
- at IF Elfsborg23 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 32%
- at Halmstad28 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 47%
- vs Hammarby FF1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 29%
- at IFK Goteborg8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 38%
BK Hacken
- vs Degerfors IF24 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 49%
- at IF Brommapojkarna28 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 39%
- vs IFK Goteborg1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 47%
- at AIK Stockholm8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.