Spartak Moscow
vs
Rubin
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Spartak Moscow 1–0 Rubin
The model makes it 45% Spartak Moscow, 29% draw, 26% Rubin — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 1.58, Rubin 0.94.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Spartak Moscow are 4th on 19 points from 9 games; Rubin are 6th on 12 points from 9 games — Premier League.
- Spartak Moscow have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Fakel.
- Rubin are unbeaten in their last 5 (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Rodina Moskva.
- Last 6 meetings: Spartak Moscow 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 August 2026, ended Rubin 1–1 Spartak Moscow.
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Spartak Moscow vs Rubin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spartak Moscow at 45% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Spartak Moscow vs Rubin
Spartak Moscow
- W1-0Fakel16 September 2026
- W3-0FC Rostov13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dynamo6 September 2026
- D1-1FC Orenburg30 August 2026
- W2-0Zenit23 August 2026
Rubin
- D1-1away to Rodina Moskva16 September 2026
- D1-1away to CSKA Moscow12 September 2026
- D1-1Akhmat7 September 2026
- W3-1Dinamo Makhachkala30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Baltika24 August 2026
What these results say
- Spartak Moscow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rubin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rubin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rubin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 19 |
| 6 | Rubin | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Spartak Moscow vs Rubin
- 19 August 2026Rubin 1–1 Spartak MoscowCup
- 8 July 2026Spartak Moscow 0–0 RubinFriendlies Clubs
- 11 May 2026Spartak Moscow 2–1 RubinPremier League
- 23 August 2025Rubin 0–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 9 March 2025Rubin 2–1 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 31 August 2024Spartak Moscow 1–0 RubinPremier League
Leading scorers: Spartak Moscow and Rubin
Spartak Moscow
- M. Daku3 goals1 assist
- M. Ugalde3 goals
Rubin
- A. Arroyo3 goals1 assist
- J. Siwe3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Spartak Moscow carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.3 for Rubin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Spartak Moscow and 0.94 for Rubin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Spartak Moscow rate 0.67 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rubin rate 0.50 and 1.53.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Spartak Moscow a 13.1% chance of the title and Rubin 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spartak Moscow the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Spartak Moscow against 0.94 for Rubin. Spartak Moscow's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.53 for Rubin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Spartak Moscow at home · Rubin away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Spartak Moscow 9, Rubin 9.
Spartak Moscow score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Rubin have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Spartak Moscow
- at CSKA Moscow25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- at Lokomotiv1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- vs Akron8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 57%
- at Dinamo Makhachkala22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
Rubin
- vs Krylia Sovetov24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- vs Fakel31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Lokomotiv6 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- vs Zenit21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.