Austria Vienna
vs
Rapid Vienna
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Austria Vienna 1–2 Rapid Vienna
The model makes it 23% Austria Vienna, 25% draw, 52% Rapid Vienna — fair odds of 4.35, 4.00 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Austria Vienna 1.12, Rapid Vienna 1.95.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Rapid Vienna are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Austria Vienna are 10th on 7 points from 9 games; Rapid Vienna are top on 24 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- Austria Vienna are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Ried.
- Rapid Vienna are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to TSV Hartberg.
- Last 6 meetings: Austria Vienna 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Rapid Vienna 0–2 Austria Vienna.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rapid Vienna at 52% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna
Austria Vienna
- L2-3away to Ried17 October 2026
- L0-2Sturm Graz10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Grazer AK19 September 2026
- W2-1Austria Lustenau13 September 2026
- L0-1WSG Wattens2 September 2026
Rapid Vienna
- W3-1TSV Hartberg16 October 2026
- W2-0away to Lask Linz11 October 2026
- W3-0WSG Wattens18 September 2026
- W3-0away to Wolfsberger AC12 September 2026
- L1-5away to Red Bull Salzburg2 September 2026
What these results say
- Austria Vienna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Austria Vienna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rapid Vienna scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rapid Vienna won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rapid Vienna had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 |
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna
- 10 May 2026Rapid Vienna 0–2 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 12 April 2026Austria Vienna 1–1 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 15 February 2026Austria Vienna 2–0 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 28 September 2025Rapid Vienna 1–3 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 11 May 2025Austria Vienna 1–2 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 13 April 2025Rapid Vienna 2–0 Austria ViennaBundesliga
Leading scorers: Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna
Austria Vienna
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Rapid Vienna
GoalsAssists
- P. Dahl50
- T. Adamsen42
- E. Kara41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Austria Vienna carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.73 for Rapid Vienna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Austria Vienna and 1.95 for Rapid Vienna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austria Vienna rate 0.60 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rapid Vienna rate 0.90 and 1.15.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Austria Vienna a 0% chance of the title and Rapid Vienna 58%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rapid Vienna the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Austria Vienna against 1.95 for Rapid Vienna. Austria Vienna's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.15 for Rapid Vienna.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Austria Vienna at home · Rapid Vienna away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Austria ViennaRapid Vienna
Austria Vienna are 10th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 8th and 12th so far); Rapid Vienna are 1st after 9 (between 1st and 3rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Austria Vienna 9, Rapid Vienna 9.
Austria Vienna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Rapid Vienna have let in 1 there.
Rapid Vienna score most often in the 0–15 minute window (8 goals); Austria Vienna have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Austria Vienna
- at WSG Wattens8 Nov · Bundesligawin 34%
- vs Red Bull Salzburg22 Nov · Bundesligawin 22%
- vs Wolfsberger AC28 Nov · Bundesligawin 48%
- at Sturm Graz6 Dec · Bundesligawin 18%
Rapid Vienna
- vs Wolfsberger AC6 Nov · Bundesligawin 70%
- at Grazer AK21 Nov · Bundesligawin 53%
- at Austria Lustenau28 Nov · Bundesligawin 62%
- vs Lask Linz5 Dec · Bundesligawin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.