Baltika
vs
FC Rostov
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Baltika 1–0 FC Rostov
The model makes it 48% Baltika, 28% draw, 24% FC Rostov — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Baltika 1.76, FC Rostov 0.93.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Baltika are 8th on 11 points from 9 games; FC Rostov are 12th on 8 points from 9 games — Premier League.
- Baltika are without a win in 3, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Zenit.
- FC Rostov have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Dynamo.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 1 win each, 3 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended FC Rostov 1–1 Baltika.
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Baltika vs FC Rostov
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Baltika at 48% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Baltika vs FC Rostov
Baltika
- L2-3Zenit16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Fakel12 September 2026
- L0-1Lokomotiv6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Rodina Moskva30 August 2026
- D1-1Rubin24 August 2026
FC Rostov
- L0-3Dynamo17 September 2026
- L0-3away to Spartak Moscow13 September 2026
- W3-1Fakel5 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Krasnodar29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Akhmat22 August 2026
What these results say
- Baltika failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baltika scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baltika conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Rostov conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Rostov failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Rostov had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Baltika | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Baltika vs FC Rostov
- 7 March 2026FC Rostov 1–1 BaltikaPremier League
- 21 September 2025Baltika 0–0 FC RostovPremier League
- 19 May 2024FC Rostov 2–1 BaltikaPremier League
- 2 May 2024FC Rostov 0–1 BaltikaCup
- 16 September 2023Baltika 2–2 FC RostovPremier League
Leading scorers: Baltika and FC Rostov
Baltika
- B. Gil4 goals1 assist
FC Rostov
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Baltika carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.12 for FC Rostov. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Baltika and 0.93 for FC Rostov. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Baltika rate 0.58 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Rostov rate 0.46 and 1.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Baltika a 0.4% chance of the title and FC Rostov 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Baltika the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Baltika against 0.93 for FC Rostov. Baltika's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.97 for FC Rostov.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Baltika at home · FC Rostov away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Baltika 9, FC Rostov 9.
Baltika score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); FC Rostov have let in 7 there.
FC Rostov score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Baltika have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Baltika
- at FC Krasnodar24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs Akron1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 51%
- vs Dinamo Makhachkala8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- at FC Orenburg21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
FC Rostov
- vs Lokomotiv25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- at Dinamo Makhachkala1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Zenit8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 18%
- vs Krylia Sovetov20 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.