Dynamo
vs
CSKA Moscow
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Dynamo 2–1 CSKA Moscow
The model makes it 45% Dynamo, 28% draw, 27% CSKA Moscow — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dynamo 1.81, CSKA Moscow 1.15.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Dynamo are 2nd on 19 points from 9 games; CSKA Moscow are 3rd on 19 points from 9 games — Premier League.
- Dynamo are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to FC Rostov.
- CSKA Moscow are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Dinamo Makhachkala.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Dynamo 5–2 CSKA Moscow.
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dynamo at 45% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow
Dynamo
- W3-0away to FC Rostov17 September 2026
- W1-0FC Orenburg12 September 2026
- W2-1Spartak Moscow6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Lokomotiv29 August 2026
- W3-1Rodina Moskva23 August 2026
CSKA Moscow
- W3-1away to Dinamo Makhachkala17 September 2026
- D1-1Rubin12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Zenit5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Akron28 August 2026
- W3-2Lokomotiv22 August 2026
What these results say
- Dynamo won every one of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Moscow went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CSKA Moscow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Moscow conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dynamo | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 19 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow
- 18 July 2026Dynamo 5–2 CSKA MoscowFriendlies Clubs
- 8 March 2026CSKA Moscow 1–4 DynamoPremier League
- 6 February 2026CSKA Moscow 1–1 DynamoFriendlies Clubs
- 17 August 2025Dynamo 1–3 CSKA MoscowPremier League
- 16 April 2025Dynamo 0–0 CSKA MoscowCup
- 6 April 2025CSKA Moscow 3–1 DynamoPremier League
Leading scorers: Dynamo and CSKA Moscow
Dynamo
- K. Tyukavin4 goals1 assist
CSKA Moscow
- I. Oblyakov4 goals
- I. Oleynikov3 goals3 assists
- L. Gondou3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dynamo carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.36 for CSKA Moscow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for Dynamo and 1.15 for CSKA Moscow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dynamo rate 0.71 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Moscow rate 0.62 and 1.65.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dynamo a 19% chance of the title and CSKA Moscow 5.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dynamo the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Dynamo against 1.15 for CSKA Moscow. Dynamo's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.65 for CSKA Moscow.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dynamo at home · CSKA Moscow away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Dynamo 9, CSKA Moscow 9.
Dynamo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); CSKA Moscow have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dynamo
- at Akron24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 48%
- vs Akhmat31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 51%
- at Fakel7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- vs FC Krasnodar22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
CSKA Moscow
- vs Spartak Moscow25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at FC Orenburg1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at FC Krasnodar7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Akhmat21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.