Zenit
vs
Akhmat
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Zenit 2–0 Akhmat
The model makes it 54% Zenit, 26% draw, 20% Akhmat — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Zenit 2.14, Akhmat 0.89.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Zenit are 5th on 18 points from 9 games; Akhmat are 10th on 10 points from 9 games — Premier League.
- Zenit have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win away to Baltika.
- Akhmat have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Akron.
- Last 6 meetings: Zenit 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Zenit 2–0 Akhmat.
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Zenit vs Akhmat
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zenit at 54% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zenit vs Akhmat
Zenit
- W3-2away to Baltika16 September 2026
- W2-1Lokomotiv12 September 2026
- L1-2CSKA Moscow5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Fakel29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Spartak Moscow23 August 2026
Akhmat
- L0-2away to Akron17 September 2026
- W3-2Dinamo Makhachkala13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rubin7 September 2026
- D3-3Krylia Sovetov29 August 2026
- W4-1FC Rostov22 August 2026
What these results say
- Zenit scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zenit conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Akhmat conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Akhmat scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Akhmat.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Zenit | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 18 |
| 10 | Akhmat | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Zenit vs Akhmat
- 26 April 2026Zenit 2–0 AkhmatPremier League
- 17 September 2025Zenit 2–1 AkhmatCup
- 9 August 2025Akhmat 1–0 ZenitPremier League
- 30 July 2025Akhmat 1–2 ZenitCup
- 24 May 2025Zenit 3–0 AkhmatPremier League
- 27 November 2024Akhmat 1–2 ZenitCup
Leading scorers: Zenit and Akhmat
Zenit
- A. Sobolev7 goals2 assists
- M. Glushenkov6 goals2 assists
Akhmat
- Egas Cacintura3 goals1 assist
- G. Melkadze3 goals
- L. Sadulaev2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Zenit carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.23 for Akhmat. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for Zenit and 0.89 for Akhmat. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zenit rate 0.73 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Akhmat rate 0.55 and 1.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zenit a 28.7% chance of the title and Akhmat 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zenit the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Zenit against 0.89 for Akhmat. Zenit's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.9 for Akhmat.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zenit at home · Akhmat away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Zenit 9, Akhmat 9.
Zenit score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Akhmat have let in 2 there.
Akhmat score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Zenit have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zenit
- vs Dinamo Makhachkala25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- at Krylia Sovetov2 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- vs FC Rostov8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 57%
- at Rubin21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
Akhmat
- vs FC Orenburg23 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 42%
- at Dynamo31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- vs Rodina Moskva7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 51%
- at CSKA Moscow21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.