Red Bull Salzburg
vs
Austria Lustenau
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Red Bull Salzburg 2–0 Austria Lustenau
The model makes it 75% Red Bull Salzburg, 16% draw, 9% Austria Lustenau — fair odds of 1.33, 6.25 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Red Bull Salzburg 2.92, Austria Lustenau 0.74.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Red Bull Salzburg are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Red Bull Salzburg are 3rd on 18 points from 8 games; Austria Lustenau are 9th on 8 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- Red Bull Salzburg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Grazer AK.
- Austria Lustenau have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Lask Linz.
- Last 6 meetings: Red Bull Salzburg 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 February 2024, ended Red Bull Salzburg 7–0 Austria Lustenau.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Red Bull Salzburg at 75% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau
Red Bull Salzburg
- D0-0away to Grazer AK10 October 2026
- W3-0Sturm Graz20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ried11 September 2026
- W5-1Rapid Vienna2 September 2026
- W4-1Austria Vienna30 August 2026
Austria Lustenau
- L0-4Lask Linz17 October 2026
- L3-4away to TSV Hartberg11 October 2026
- W2-0SCR Altach19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Austria Vienna13 September 2026
- L0-4WSG Wattens28 August 2026
What these results say
- Red Bull Salzburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austria Lustenau failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austria Lustenau conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Austria Lustenau had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 18 |
| 9 | Austria Lustenau | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau
- 24 February 2024Red Bull Salzburg 7–0 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 30 September 2023Austria Lustenau 0–4 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 11 February 2023Red Bull Salzburg 4–0 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 27 August 2022Austria Lustenau 0–6 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 29 May 2020Red Bull Salzburg 5–0 Austria LustenauCup
- 31 October 2018Austria Lustenau 0–1 Red Bull SalzburgCup
Leading scorers: Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau
Red Bull Salzburg
GoalsAssists
- K. Konaté40
- H. Tabaković30
- Y. Vertessen21
Austria Lustenau
GoalsAssists
- D. Weixelbraun61
- A. Verinac32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Red Bull Salzburg carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.19 for Austria Lustenau. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.92 goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.74 for Austria Lustenau. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Red Bull Salzburg rate 0.86 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Austria Lustenau rate 0.56 and 2.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Red Bull Salzburg a 24.5% chance of the title and Austria Lustenau 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Red Bull Salzburg the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg against 0.74 for Austria Lustenau. Red Bull Salzburg's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.09 for Austria Lustenau.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Red Bull Salzburg at home · Austria Lustenau away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Red Bull SalzburgAustria Lustenau
Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd after 8 Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 4th so far); Austria Lustenau are 9th after 9 (between 3rd and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Red Bull Salzburg 8, Austria Lustenau 9.
Red Bull Salzburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Austria Lustenau have let in 4 there.
Austria Lustenau score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Red Bull Salzburg have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Red Bull Salzburg
- at Anderlecht5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 26%
- at Sturm Graz8 Nov · Bundesligawin 35%
Austria Lustenau
- vs Grazer AK7 Nov · Bundesligawin 36%
- at WSG Wattens21 Nov · Bundesligawin 27%
- vs Rapid Vienna28 Nov · Bundesligawin 17%
- at Wolfsberger AC6 Dec · Bundesligawin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.