1899 Hoffenheim
vs
Lyon
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: 1899 Hoffenheim 1–2 Lyon
The model makes it 36% 1899 Hoffenheim, 27% draw, 37% Lyon — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.48, Lyon 1.52.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: 1899 Hoffenheim and Lyon are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- 1899 Hoffenheim are 29th on 0 points from 1 game; Lyon are 11th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Hamburger SV.
- Lyon have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Lens.
- Last 3 meetings: all 3 drawn; the most recent, 7 November 2024, ended 1899 Hoffenheim 2–2 Lyon.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lyon at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon
1899 Hoffenheim
- L0-2away to OFI17 September 2026
Lyon
- W2-1away to Anderlecht16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon
- 7 November 20241899 Hoffenheim 2–2 LyonUEFA Europa League
- 7 November 2018Lyon 2–2 1899 HoffenheimUEFA Champions League
- 23 October 20181899 Hoffenheim 3–3 LyonUEFA Champions League
The two sides
1899 Hoffenheim carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.95 for Lyon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.52 for Lyon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1899 Hoffenheim rate 1.05 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lyon rate 1.04 and 0.85.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lyon the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.52 for Lyon. 1899 Hoffenheim's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/0.85 for Lyon.
Season stats
1899 Hoffenheim at home · Lyon away
League matches only, this season — 1899 Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga, Lyon in the Ligue 1. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: 1899 Hoffenheim 5 in the Bundesliga, Lyon 6 in the Ligue 1.
1899 Hoffenheim score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Lyon have let in 0 there.
Lyon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); 1899 Hoffenheim have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
1899 Hoffenheim
- vs Bayer Leverkusen25 Oct · Bundesligawin 24%
- at Holstein Kiel27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 48%
- at Werder Bremen31 Oct · Bundesligawin 34%
- at Crystal Palace5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
Lyon
- at Paris Saint Germain25 Oct · Ligue 1win 20%
- vs Angers31 Oct · Ligue 1win 61%
- at Real Sociedad5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.